Arsenal Scout Report - Game week 10

Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.93 (4), Defensive Rating 2.51 (6), Net Rating 1.42 (3), Possession 57.29% (4), Pace 2.72 (6)

Sunday 16th October @ 16:00

Location: Away – Elland Road, Leeds

Opposition – Leeds

Attack Rating 2.38 (13), Defensive Rating 4.02 (17), Net Rating -1.64 (15), Possession 52.59% (7), Pace 2.51 (8)

Last Season Results

Saturday 18th December 2021 @ Elland Road, Leeds

Leeds 1 – 4 Arsenal

Goals: Raphinha 75’ (pen)

Martinelli 16’, 28’, Saka 42’, Smith Rowe 84’

Sunday 8th May 2022 @ Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 2 – 1 Leeds

Goals: Nketiah 5’, 10’

Llorente 66’

Red Cards: Ayling 27’

Arsenal travel to Leeds on Sunday looking to continue a near perfect start to the premier league season. Still top of the pile after an exhilarating 3 – 2 win over Liverpool. The good form continued with a midweek win over the Norwegian side, Bodø/Glimt in the Europa League.

The weekend’s trip to Yorkshire will be a very different challenge against a team that is currently struggling for form. Other than their opening day victory over Wolves, and a surprise 3 – 0 washing of Chelsea, Leeds have struggled to control games, picking up only 3 points from the possible 18 in the remaining 6 games.

Not dissimilar to last week’s opponents, Leeds aim to press opposition high up the pitch and control possession with the talented midfield three of Rodrigo, Aaronson and Harrison. To this point in the season, the Leeds front man (Bamford) has been dealing with injuries and is yet to add to his goal tally, meaning the Leeds threat has been considerably dampened. On the other side of the pitch, Leeds are also allowing teams the 6th most big chances per game resulting in the 17th ranked defensive rating in the league. For them, the game against Arsenal will either be an unwanted compounding of negative issues, or a potential season defining opportunity to upset another “big 6” team and reinvigorate their season.

Line-Up

4-2-3-1

Leeds continue to adopt the 4-2-3-1 formation that brought them success in the 2021-22 season, now with the duality of trickery and workmanship of Aaronson on the right wing, taking over from Raphinha who left for Barcelona in the summer. Rodrigo is still delivering, showing off his versatility and continuing to impress having had the responsibility of playing as the lone no. 9 while Bamford has been out, and in his primary no. 10 role to support the front man.

Arsenal will have to deal with a well drilled Leeds team that will not relent in their approach of trying to win the ball high up the pitch, while being comfortable enough in possession to build from the back when they do maintain possession.

With that in mind, the challenge of keeping the attacking midfield trifecta of Leeds off the ball and out of dangerous areas will be key for Arsenal. We should be safe to expect the Arsenal machine to produce sufficient chances against this Leeds defence, but discipline in our half, both in and out of possession, will likely prove the difference between a relatively routine game or an undesirable dog-fight.

Though 15th in the league, Leeds do present a challenge to defences across the league. Ranked 10th in attack, Leeds are 8th in big chances created per game, largely led by the creativity of their attacking midfield trio. Reducing the number of touches allowed to the three players and forcing them to pick the ball up from higher up the pitch is almost a sure-fire way to nullify the Leeds attacks.

The heat map above shows the touches and positions of the aforementioned three players in their 2 – 1 loss to Crystal Palace. For a team that are struggling to create, taking the lead against a menacing Crystal Palace side and going on to create big chances, away from home, was surely a positive takeaway for the Yorkshire side.

However, the heat map below shows the heat map for the same 3 positions in the previous game week, where they were head to an attack rating of 0.00 (no goals, no big chances created and no clear shots on goal), as the number of touches for these creative players was slashed and they were forced to play from much deeper in their own half.

Key Themes for Sunday’s Game

- Big Chance conversion – The Gunners go into the game with the league’s 4th highest attack rating, and on the back of 2 statement wins over big 6 opposition. In previous seasons, this could be seen as a moment for Arsenal to pull up the handbrake and lose valuable momentum. This Arsenal team seem different. We go into the game 5th in big chance conversion, and with the defence of Leeds currently shaky at best, confidence should be high in our ability to get big chances, and for the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to capitalise when the opportunities arise.

- Touches/Passes of the Arsenal back 6 – Both teams are top 10 in average possession (Arsenal 6th with 57.29%, Leeds 8th with 52.59%), meaning at least 1 team is going to have to adjust to playing with less of the ball. The high press of Leeds will be looking for mistakes specifically from our back 6, especially Gabriel and Ramsdale. Arsenal will likely not look to change the assured style of play, focused on trusting everyone to pass the ball, but that will probably prove to be the most reliable area for Leeds to seek opportunities. Without us making mistakes and creating opportunities for Leeds, the Arsenal defence should be in for a relatively comfortable afternoon.

- Fouls/Discipline of Leeds – Leeds are currently leading the league in fouls per game and are 1 of the 6 teams to have already seen a red card. Elland Road prides itself or being a hostile environment and will be looking to push its team to playing an intense, aggressive brand of football when Arsenal visit. Arsenal lead the league in successful dribbles and successful dribble percentage. The combination looks like a potent formula for an explosive game with lots of tackles, and plenty of decisions for Chris Kavanagh to make (notably, his last Arsenal game was the Gunner’s 2 – 1 win over Leeds in May, when he sent off Luke Ayling).

Prediction

Leeds 0 – 3 Arsenal

Momentum and history are Arsenal’s side going into the game on Sunday. In the last 10 Premier League meeting of the 2 sides, Arsenal have earned 6 wins and 2 draws. The Gunners are also on a 3-game win streak vs the Whites’ 5-game winless streak.

With the absence of any defensive howlers, Arsenal should be capable of leaving Elland Road with the 3 points and clean sheet to remain top of the league for another happy game week for Gooners everywhere.