Arsenal Scout Report - Game Week 12

Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.72 (3), Defensive Rating 2.26 (6), Net Rating 1.46 (2), Possession 56.91% (4), Pace 2.55 (7)

Sunday 23rd October @ 14:00

Location: Away – Saint Mary’s Stadium, Southampton

Opposition – Southampton

Southampton: Attack Rating 1.87 (15), Defensive Rating 3.03 (12), Net Rating -1.16 (14), Possession 43.15% (17), Pace 1.77 (14)

Last Season Results

Saturday 11th December 2021 @ Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 3 – 0 Southampton

Goals: Lacazette 21’, Ødegaard 27’, Magalhães 62'

Saturday 16th April 2022 @ Saint Mary’s Stadium, Southampton

Southampton 1 – 0 Arsenal

Goals: Bednarek 44’

We travel to the south coast as the in-form team in the league having won 3 games in a row by the slim 1 – 0 score line. Doing just enough to get the job in the previous 3 games is welcomed, but is not a habit this young Arsenal team could reliably depend on to maintain a healthy league run.

Arsenal’s last visit to Southampton in the premier league was the bottom of a 3-game losing skid. The starting Arsenal back-line consisted of Soares, White, Gabriel and Tavares, with the front line led by Nketieh. While the team is playing with a lot more confidence, Saint Mary’s stadium has not proved to be a happy hunting ground in recent years for the Gunners. The record in the past 5 away league games is 2W, 1D & 2L. Any complacency will be punished, and given the fixture congestion, another gritty challenge (like our last league game away at Leeds – where we were run ragged) could steer us into trouble.

Wind have been few are far between for the Saints. After the win against Chelsea in game week 5, Southampton had been on a 5-game winless streak (including a 4-game losing streak) but managed to re-direct their momentum with a win against south-coast rivals Bournemouth earlier this week.

Despite that, given this flying start to season, Arsenal have set their eyes on ambitious heights so cannot afford, and should not expect, to drop points here.

Possible Line-Up

4-4-2

The Saints have been forced to experiment with their line-up over the preceding weeks, due to injuries to key personnel (Lavia out since Chelsea and Walker-Peters most recently picking up an injury earlier in the week) and the struggle for form. They have found some recent success with somewhat old-fashioned, but principled 4-4-2 setup. The system allows them to work the ball into dangerous wide areas and put in balls for Che Adams to attack.

While Southampton have been deprived of form, the centre forward has been putting in consistent performances and was rewarded with a delightful headed goal in the 1 – 0 win over Bournemouth. The biggest threat to the Arsenal goal will almost certainly be from Adams. His aggression and aerial threat will need to be dealt with shrewdly by the pairing of Gabriel and Saliba.

The fact that Lavia will most likely not feature given his fresh return from injury, and the absence of Walker-Peters, means Ralph Hasenhüttl will have some big decisions to make in his attempt to thwart the exciting Arsenal attack. While Ainsley Maitland-Niles might be a strong option for this, due to his loan arrangements, he can not play against Arsenal, leaving the Saint’s options even thinner.

Key Themes for Sunday’s Game

- Southampton right wing – The absence of Walker-Peters is a big loss for Southampton. While they have solid options to deputise, the drop-off in the attacking threat and defensive attributes from the England full-back will be apparent. Assuming Gabriel Martinelli is healthy following his midweek illness should mean a tough afternoon for whoever is given to responsibility of keeping him quiet.

- Pace of the game – The upcoming international break and the subsequent fixture congestion has clearly become a major factor. The quality and energy of the Arsenal team clearly waned over the 90 minutes in the last time out against Leeds. The squad rotation against PSV in mid-week will hopefully have kept the team fresh enough to perform again in a likely unwelcoming environment.

- Saliba & Gabriel vs Adams & Armstrong – The 2 Southampton attackers pose a physical challenge for the Arsenal defence. The 15th rated Southampton attack is 2nd lowest of our opponents to date (only to Aston Villa in 19th), but the simplicity of a “route 1” approach or anything similar is exactly how a confident Arsenal would be predicted to be humbled. The physical presence of our centre back pairing has been fairly understated due to the brilliance of our attacking players, but another dominant display from the duo will be key to returning home with 3 points.

Prediction

Southampton 0 – 2 Arsenal

The game has the feeling of a disappointing afternoon for Arsenal. Riding high, on encouraging win streaks in both the premier league and the Europa League, and top of the table. This is the game that a young Arsenal team would look back on in hindsight as valuable points dropped.

Yet, as with the game away at Leeds, this Arsenal team seems different. They are better technically, smarter and more focused. Mikel Arteta has the team entering these games with a far more positive approach and insisting they start on the front foot. It would take a very poor performance to drop the 3 points, but a frustrating afternoon could see the game ending goalless. However, it is difficult to imagine the quality of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka letting that happen.