Arsenal Scout Report - Game week 13

Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.51 (2), Defensive Rating 2.25 (4), Net Rating 1.26 (2), Possession 57.13% (4), Pace 2.56 (6)

Sunday 30th October @ 14:00

Location: Home – Emirates Stadium, London

Opposition – Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.32 (19), Defensive Rating 3.47 (15), Net Rating -2.15 (19), Possession 40.97% (19), Pace 2.45 (8)

Last Season Results

N/A

For a team sat top of the premier league going into game week 13, and top of their Europa League group, it seems weird to say Arsenal are facing a bout of adversity heading into the game on Sunday. A draw away at Saint Mary’s last week and a loss away at PSV in the Europa league, have been preceded by a run of relatively poor performances where the team had been able to collect the points in spite of the performances.

Mikel Arteta also commented on the need for “a reset”, acknowledging the decline that the team have shown. Fortunately for the Gunners, if there is a team in the Premier League that should offer a firm opportunity to redevelop form, it should be Nottingham Forest. The bottom placed team are 19th in attack rating and 19th in net rating, while also playing with the 2nd least possession in the league. But in this league, complacency, not curiosity, will be the cause of your demise. Nottingham Forest come to the Emirates on the back of 2 strong results in respect of their season. The maximum 3 points taken from Liverpool is further proof, if any more needed, that every game in this league is a challenge that should not be underestimated.

A dominant display maintained for the 90 minutes and goals will be expected from the coach, the team and an eager Emirates Stadium to help rejuvenate the hopes of a sustained title charge.

Expected Line-Up

Steve Cooper’s men have settled into the fashionable 4-3-3 system with the intent to play the ball out from the back, building up play via a relatively deep-lying midfield trio. The 4-3-3 setup is commonplace in the premier league currently, with teams across the entire league adopting the system is some variation. Alongside this, a theme across the league is attempting to generate opportunities from as high up the pitch as possible. Understandably, the style requires a stringent set of skills by those attempting this and a rigorous chemistry amongst the players that becomes almost robotic in order for the intent to become success. Nottingham Forest currently sit bottom of the table due to having a lack of those precise attributes. The selection of players do not exude the kind of quality of other teams in the league that are succeeding (and failing) at playing this style, while also suffering from an obvious lack of chemistry throughout the team. This is expected given the extreme turnover in staff over the summer period at the midlands club.

Threat Areas

Though the 19th rated attack of Nottingham Forest may indicate limited threat, Arsenal cannot afford any complacency. Going into the game without urgency will lead this mini slump developing into a full-blown collapse.

Forest have pace to exploit and have focused their attacks to the wide areas almost predominately.

The 3 heat maps below show evidence (from their previous 3 games; away at Wolves, away at Brighton, and at home vs Liverpool) of both the wide areas of the pitch that Forest have focused on, and the fact that they are a team that struggle to progress far up the pitch.

vs Wolves

vs Brighton

vs Liverpool

As the bottom placed team in the league, nobody really expects Forest to dominate the ball away to Arsenal. This also plays into their hand. Knowing that they will have to feed off scraps and set pieces creates the added tension every time such a scenario presents itself. Though the Reds are not a particularly big team, they do pose a threat from set pieces as proven by the scrappy winner scored against Liverpool in game week 12.

Key Themes for Sunday’s Game

- Possession – Arsenal expect to control possession in most games, especially at the Emirates, but against this Nottingham Forest side, ranked 19th in possession, this should be an aggressively 1-sided game. Creating and converting quality chances has to be an outcome of the expected possession to spread dilute any uncertainty that will have seeped into the north London crowd.

- Set pieces – While the opposition will likely surrender control of the ball to us, they will continue to hunt for any opportunity that presents. The most dangerous being set pieces. The focus and resilience of our back line, including Ramsdale (who has put together a compilation of questionable missed saves/punches in recent games) will be tested thoroughly.

- Gabriel Jesus – It has now been 3 premier league games since Gabriel Jesus scored, and his confidence is being questioned. Missing some costly chances in the Southampton game has opened the talismanic front man to some unwarranted criticism. The longer any goal draught continues for a striker, the more of such criticism is bred. A clinic in front of goal for Jesus will do wonders for the feel in the stadium and the faith in the team heading into the international break.

- Counterattacks on the flanks – Whether it's Ben White, Tomiyasu, Tierney or Zinchenko, the Arsenal fullbacks will be required to cover any threat posed by the Nottingham Forest wide men for the full 90 minutes. So far this season, there is not much to suggest the players will not be able to handle the challenge, but if the premier league is known for anything, it’s that anything can happen.

Prediction

Arsenal 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest

As with the last few games against low-placed opposition, there is the threat that this young Arsenal team could fall to the frustration of a low block, or be caught on the other side due to a drop in concentration. Given the current run of results and the necessity for a strong performance, at home, it seems only likely that the Gunners are able to take this opportunity to rightly bounce back to close a packed October schedule.