Arsenal Scout Report - Game week 14

Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.78 (2), Defensive Rating 2.06 (4), Net Rating 1.71 (1), Possession 58.14% (4), Pace 2.61 (7)

Sunday 6th November @ 12:00

Location: Away – Stamford Bridge, London

Opposition – Chelsea

Attack Rating 2.13 (12), Defensive Rating 3.22 (13), Net Rating -1.09 (12), Possession 60.13% (3), Pace 1.71 (16)

Last Season Results

Sunday 22nd August 2021 @ Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 0 – 2 Chelsea

Goals: Lukaku 15’, James 35’

Wednesday 20th April 2022 @ Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 2 – 4 Arsenal

Goals: Werner 5’, Azpilicueta 32’

Nketiah 13’, 57’, Smith Rowe 27’, Saka (pen) 90+2’

Another quick Thursday – Sunday turnaround sees the Gunners go into another huge game with a day shorter rest and preparation period than their opposition. With Bukayo Saka coming off early in last weekend’s victory over Nottingham Forest, the final few fixtures were looking like The Arsenal squad depth was going to receive an unnerving, early challenge against a difficult rival. However, the surprise inclusion of Saka, Zinchenko and Elneny in the Europa League squad for the final group game has sent optimistic waves throughout the Arsenal fanbase. Unfortunately, Arsenal did not escape the Thursday night game without casualty, as a budding Gunners favourite, Takehiro Tomiyasu, walked off the pitch early with an apparent muscle injury that may (but hopefully won’t) impact his World Cup.

Sitting top of the league and playing an entertaining brand of football, Arsenal will be going into the game with the momentum and the confidence. Our London rivals, in a very dissimilar situation, will be fully aware of our momentum, our confidence and our position in the league, and will be eager to provide all the rain for our parade. However, the Blues are currently not playing spectacular football, and are likely pretty low on confidence following last week’s shocking 4 – 1 defeat away at Brighton. They are also dealing with the impact of the Reece James knee injury that will keep him side-lined until after the World Cup. Chelsea’s performances and results have noticeably suffered since James left the line-up. Over the last 3 Premier League games, Chelsea have had the 3rd worst attacking efficiency (18th in attack rating) and have created chances at the 3rd lowest pace. A more condemning stat is that Chelsea have allowed their opponents to create the (joint) 6th most Big Chances per game over the last 3 games, and that is while averaging >60% possession (3rd highest in the league). This is a clear indicator of the frailties of the Chelsea defence.

How Graham Potter and the Stamford Bridge crowd attempt to mask these frailties could be the deciding factors to this London Derby. Graham Potter has been experimenting with setups that employ 4-at-the-back (2 centre backs with full backs) or 3-at-the-back (3 centre backs with full backs or with “wing” backs), each resulting in more cons than pros with Reece James out of the line-up. Even with the sentinel figure of Thiago Silva at the base of the 3-man setup, Chelsea needed 2 goal line clearances, before ultimately conceding 4 goals against Brighton that included 2 comical own goals. Based on current form, neither system looks likely to provide the hostile Stamford Bridge crowd the kind of confidence that it typically embodies.

Possible Line-Up

It would usually be safe to assume that Chelsea would plan to dominate their opponent at Stamford Bridge. In such a case, a front 3 of Sterling, ex-Arsenal captain P.E. Aubameyang and Mount would be a given. With the back 3 and defensive-minded wing backs, Chelsea could assume sufficient control to sacrifice the man in the midfield. At this point in time, only the harshest Arsenal critic would accept this as an appropriate plan. That is unless Graham Potter and Chelsea are intending to play an extremely open game and to outgun the Gunners. A likely scenario is the personnel is as above, but Mount is deployed centrally.

If not Mount moving centrally, there is the chance that Sterling is moved to the bench, in exchange for a central player to “close” the midfield. The key role of said central player will likely be to disrupt and hassle Thomas Partey all afternoon. The question for Graham Potter will then be, “who?”. Conor Gallagher is a simple answer, but does he offer enough threat going forward to prevent Potter’s men from spending the majority of the afternoon defending.

Heat Maps

Whether Graham Potter opts for a 3-at-the-back (most likely) or 4-at-the-back system, the positioning of the wing backs, and Arsenal’s ability to expose them, will be a major theme to the proceedings. Chelsea are not creating Big Chances at a menacing rate (16th in pace for the season), with the wing backs being critical to the chances that they do create. The heat maps below show the position of the Chelsea wing backs in their last 3 games against Manchester United, Brighton and Brentford, where they created 0, 2 and 1 non-penalty Big Chances, respectively.

vs Manchester United (1 – 1)

vs Brighton (1 – 4)

vs Brentford (0 – 0)

Key Themes for Sunday’s Game

• Graham Potter’s approach – How passive Chelsea line up will probably decide the game. Heading into the game hoping for a point or to snatch the game could lead to a very slow, very cagey affair in the early afternoon game. Graham Potter would not necessarily be wrong to choose this tactic. In that case, the game ending 0 – 0 would not be surprising.

• An Early Goal – Regardless of Potter’s setup, either side scoring an early goal will change the atmosphere and completely. The Stamford Bridge crowd will get rowdier if their side take the lead, forcing the game to become more open. Conversely, an early Arsenal goal will force Chelsea to play aggressively no matter what the plan was.

• The Crowd – Stamford Bridge has had to experience both Man United and Tottenham leave their ground with a draw after late equalisers. Since Graham Potter has joined, they have also seen performances begin to slump. They are not a patient group and will be cautious of their London rivals given our strong form. Keeping the crowd out of the game and as anxious as possible will feed directly into the players. On the other hand, if they are given any reason to build an atmosphere, they can create an environment that compares to any of the more intimidating stadiums in Europe.

• Arteta’s Approach – So far this season, we are used to Arsenal playing relatively similarly. We intend to control possession, dictate via our midfield/inverted full backs, and create space for the front 3. While it makes sense to continue in the exact same way, this Chelsea team offer the opportunity to switch to a more passive approach. With extended periods of possession, Chelsea seem particularly susceptible to quick counter-attacks. Slowing the game down and looking to play more on the break may be an effective way to keep the crowd out of the game and maximise our success with less time on the ball.

Prediction

Chelsea 2 – 2 Arsenal

Chelsea have been poor against top 6 opposition so far this season. In their 2 home games against top 6 sides, Chelsea have collected only 2 points. Only Tottenham have a worse return at this point in the season. They are also struggling with a bit of an identity crisis without Reece James in their back line. Nonetheless, Chelsea are no pushovers. They will play with pride (at Samford Bridge vs Arsenal, I don’t think they have any other choice) and will play an intense, aggressive brand of football. My heart says we have the quality and character to overcome this and get the 3 points, but more pessimistic logic says Chelsea will prove potentially the most difficult challenge of our league season so far.