Arsenal Scout Report - Game week 9

Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.97 (4), Defensive Rating 2.43 (6), Net Rating 1.54 (3), Possession 58.99% (4), Pace 2.60 (7)

Sunday 9th October @ 16:30

Location: Home – Emirates Stadium

Opposition – Liverpool

Attack Rating 3.26 (5), Defensive Rating 3.95 (15), Net Rating -0.69 (11), Possession 66.64% (2), Pace 2.48 (9)

Last Season's Results

Saturday 20th November 2021 @ Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 4 – 0 Arsenal

Goals: Mané 39’, Jota 52’, Salah 73’, Minamino 77’

Wednesday 16th March 2022 @ Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 0 – 2 Liverpool

Goals: Jota 54’, Firmino 62’

Arsenal are going into Sunday’s game top of the table, on the back end of a buoying 3 – 1 victory in the North London Derby in game week 8. Though the opposition are experiencing a rocky start to their 2022/23 campaign, they travel to the Emirates with recent history on their side.

Arsenal started the previous season on a 3-game losing skid, then bounced back with an 8-game undefeated streak in the league, before being aggressively halted by a rampant Liverpool side. Arsenal then played Liverpool on the back of a 5-game winning streak (6-game undefeated streak) at the Emirates Stadium, where Arsenal again, shot a blank on route to another disappointing loss at the hand of the Reds.

Both sides are currently on completely different trajectories than last season, posing each other completely different challenges, with differing season narratives to develop. Arsenal go into the game looking to firm their credentials as title challengers by successfully dispatching the struggling giants. Conversely, Liverpool are looking to revive their season by pegging back the high flying gunners and retaining their grip on the title of one of the top teams in the league. Considering the upcoming challenge for Liverpool, a loss on Sunday could effectively end the title hopes for Klopp’s men as they would drop to 14 points from the top with only 8 games played.

Without question, Arsenal face their toughest encounter yet against last season’s runner up. The themes of play that typify both teams suggest an explosive match with chances occurring at both ends. Though great for the neutral, there is the chance both managers would aim to avoid that being the case, and opt for a more closed game.

Akin to a rugby (union) team, the impression of Klopp’s team has been their focus on territory over possession. Though they are a team that play with a lot of the ball (currently 2nd in possession per game), they are willing to surrender control of the ball as long as the ball is in the opposition half. Arsenal go into the game having dominated the ball in dangerous areas in the opposition territory in every game so far. My take, probably predictably, is that the central midfield battle will be the key to the game on Sunday. With Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka and Martin Ødegaard in the form they are in (with the vital support of the inverted Oleksandr Zinchenko), I think Arsenal can go into the game with quiet optimism.

Liverpool will inevitably attempt to press Arsenal high up the pitch in addition to looking to counter, at pace, at every opportunity as Arsenal will look to control possession and dominate territory. As with most opposition teams they come against this season, Arsenal will be looking to expose the space that presents itself on the Liverpool right hand side as Trent Alexander Arnold pushes up the pitch and into central positions. Unfortunately for us, the spotlight has been shining extremely brightly on the defending of TAA since he was excluded from the England International squad for the September fixtures. Consequently, the Liverpool setup will likely prioritise protecting the team’s most apparent weakness – the space on their right-hand side that Martinelli will be hoping to feast on all of Sunday.

Possible Line-Ups

The 4-3-3 formation has been the staple of Klopp’s team for their dominant run over the last few years. Whether the high energy, high pressing style has taken its toll on the team, or new personnel have taken time to gel, or the loss of Mane has impacted the team more significantly than expected, or a dip in form of key players (TAA, VVD, Salah) is the cause, Klopp moved away from this formation in Liverpool’s mid-week fixture against Rangers to provide a new option for maintaining balance(?) and encouraging a more sustainable style of football for the gruelling season ahead.

The 4-3-3 formation was used in the side’s 3-3 draw at home to Brighton in game week 8 with the weaknesses displayed on the right side were surely the main factor in the decision.

The heat map above shows the positions taken up by the 2 Liverpool wing backs in their draw with Brighton last weekend (attacking left to right) in the 4-3-3 system.

Given the area of the pitch being exposed, Trent is rightly being highlighted when discussing the current frailties of the Liverpool defence, but the midfield does need to be considered in this situation. Trent wondering the pitch is not new to this Liverpool team. The map below details the positions taken up by the midfield 3 (Thiago, Fabinho & Henderson) of Liverpool in the same game.

Whether the plan or a consequence of the Brighton setup, the Liverpool midfielders did little to maintain cover for Trent on the right hand side.

In attempt to rectify the problems seen against Brighton, Klopp set up his team in the more balanced 4-2-3-1 system in their Champion’s League game against Rangers on Tuesday night.

While Liverpool will still be looking to dominate territory and assert themselves in the centre of the park, the notable theme in this game was the concerted effort by Liverpool to protect the space usually behind Trent.

Trent played consistently deeper throughout the game, and when his position was evacuated, Thiago, Henderson and Salah, took turns dropping purposefully to ensure the position was not unprotected.

The heat map below shows the positions taken up by Thiago and Henderson in the game mid-week - notably focused in the area next to Trent.

Arsenal should go into the game on Sunday with confidence in the system they have used so far this season. Whether Liverpool look to deploy the 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 system, their focus will be on their right-hand side and protecting their back line from the exploits of Gabriel Martinelli. While they may have found a short-term fix that proved effective against a relatively toothless Rangers side, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus will offer a much harsher test. Additionally, Liverpool do not seem to have evidence of balancing their midfield to defend against consistent attacks on both flanks. Watching their 2 previous games, and shown in the heat maps above, Liverpool seem prone to overextend their midfield to attack/defend one side of the pitch, at the expense of the cover of the other flank.

Key Themes for Sunday’s Game

• Central control – the team that is able to control the midfield will most likely come out on top. Partey, Xhaka and Ødegaard will need to play an almost perfect game to hold off the press and aggression of a desperate Liverpool side. Any mistakes from the spine of the team will likely be punished, meaning the defensive presence/support of Thomas Partey must be a focal point from the kick-off to the final whistle.

• Territory – Last season, we played into Liverpool’s plans allowing both games to be played predominately in our half. This led to multiple error in our half including an error leading directly to goal in the 4-0 defeat at Anfield.

• Bukayo Saka & Gabriel Martinelli – though no goals to show for it, Martinelli was one player that could take any positives from last season’s encounters with Liverpool. Every opportunity to go 1-on-1 with Trent (or his cover) will be BBQ Chicken time for Martinelli. As Liverpool will be looking to defend that specific match-up, Bukayo Saka will be salivating at the space that could be afforded to him with the extra attention on our left flank –space he hasn’t been presented with much, if at all, this season. As Arsenal are leading the league in successful dribbles and successful dribble rate, we will not be going against our identity or game plan by looking to exploit areas that are inherent weaknesses within this Liverpool setup.

• The Liverpool Counter – Even with their current struggles, this Liverpool team still have the quality the shred defences in the blink of an eye. The partnership of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães have played against the teams currently rated number 1 (Brentford) and number 3 (Manchester United) in pace, and have a 50/50 W/L ratio. It will need to be a collective effort to keep the likes of Salah, Diaz and Jota and Firmino (who both turn into the best version of themselves against Arsenal) at bay for an entire 90 minutes.

Prediction

Arsenal 3 – 1 Liverpool

I anticipate a high game that neither team can escape from with a clean sheet. This season’s established solidity should provide Arsenal with the necessary structure to keep a dangerous Liverpool team at bay for most of the game. On the other side, I do not see how Liverpool will be able to effectively contain an attack of Martinelli, Saka and Jesus that will all be looking to put the sword to a team that have not looked comfortable at the back in a number of games this season.