stevewuz

Aug 11, 202314 min read

Premier League Season 2023/24 Preview

*Note from the author: the premier league table is the clearest indicator of a team’s success during the season compared to any other metric. My reason for writing lies in the lack of nuance or objectivity (or subjectivity – which is part of the essence of football) in the table as a ranking of any team’s overall ability or authority in the league. The reasoning for developing these rankings is as an attempt to address that. Until a team’s final position is mathematically secured, these rankings simply represent my (just 1 single person’s) opinion on each teams ranking as some combination of table position, expected finishing position and difficulty as opposition (i.e. Man City ranked 1 means I think they are still the most difficult team to get a result against and are my pick to take the trophy, even if another team sit top of the Premier League). As the season has not started, this version is a ranking of teams based on the league finishes last year, with a light prediction for a team’s likely position this season.

Insights from the 2022/23 Season

Positive Vibes

Most Goals Scored

1. Manchester City (94) 2. Arsenal (88) 3. Liverpool (75)

Goals Conceded

1. Manchester City & Newcastle (33) 3. Arsenal & Manchester United (43)

Big Chances Created

1. Manchester City (128) 2. Liverpool (125) 3. Brighton (116)

Big Chance Conversion Rate

1. Crystal Palace (54%) 2. Arsenal & Fulham (50%)

Big Chances Allowed

1. Manchester City (50) 2. Newcastle (51) 3. Manchester United (62)

Yellow Cards

1. Manchester City (44) 2. West Ham (45) 3. Arsenal (54)

Negatives

Most Goals Conceded

1. Leeds (78) 2. Southampton (73) 3. Bournemouth (71)

Fewest Big Chances Created

1. Wolves (40) 2. Bournemouth & Nottingham Forest (50)

Lowest Big Chance Conversion

1. Chelsea (27%) 2. Everton (28%) 3. Wolves (33%)

Most Big Chances Allowed

1. Fulham (113) 2. Leeds (109) 3. Liverpool (103)

Most Yellow Cards

1. Leeds (89) 2. Wolves (87) 3. Nottingham Forest (84)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession.

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession.

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Game week 1 – 5 Preview

The 2022/23 sporting season included moments that will be remembered for years to come. From the successes of the mid-season FIFA World Cup in Qatar, catapulting the region into foreground of the footballing world and crowning Lionel Messi with the only silverware absent from his “Greatest Of All Time” resume, to the mindful address of failure in sport by Giannis Antetokounmpo in the NBA, one of the most dramatic Premier League seasons could have been lost amongst such moments in history. But the league did not disappoint. The 22/23 Premier League season saw Manchester City complete the 3rd 3-peat in the league’s history (Manchester United achieved 2: 1999 – 2001 & 2007 – 2009) together with a mythical league title, domestic cup and European cup treble (the 10th side to do so, and the 2nd in premier league history). While an argument could be made that so much success could lead to complacency, Pep Guardiola and Manchester City do not give the impression of a team that will be slowing down. At the other side of the table, the relegation battle was one of the most involved in recent memory, resulting in Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton dropping to the Championship.

Now the new 23/24 season begins this weekend with all the usual high expectations and prospects of grandeur from fans across the country, but there have been some changes. Other than the introduction of 3 new teams from the Championship (Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United), a number of “Points of Emphasis” (mostly related to time-wasting, officiating and behaviour towards referees) will likely have drastic impacts on the league, especially in the early weeks of the season. The measure of “success” for teams at the top of the table will also shift slightly. As the Champions League format is expanding in the 2024/25 season, it is extremely likely that an additional Premier League team will be awarded qualification for the tournament. This means the race for “top 4” will more than likely become a “top 5”. But ultimately only 1 team will raise the trophy come May 2024, and while the chasing pack have bolstered their squads and reduced the gap to the team in Manchester, a pioneering 4th EPL title in a row for Pep Guardiola is definitely a strong possibility.

That said, even with the additional Champions League spot, the margin for error of every team that hopes to compete for the top 5 spots has shrunk considerably. The quality across the league has exploded to a peak over the last ~5 – 10 years. The financial authority of the league over most other teams in Europe has never been more pronounced. The signing of a likely future Italy captain by Newcastle from Serie A highlighted that, but the necessity and will to spend, from Manchester City to even Aston Villa, has shaken a complex terrain to a further unrecognisable landscape. With the loss of key players during the Man City 3-peat, and the unpredictability of teams like Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool, no team in the “traditional big 6” is guaranteed a top 5 spot as there is genuine threat from Newcastle and Aston Villa, and the slightly weakened Brentford and Brighton.

Going into the first 5 games of the season, every point now matters that much more. And every point dropped by rivals matters equally. And every point taken from rival will matter all the more still. Whilst some opening fixtures are clearly smoother than others, every point will have to be earned and there are some teams whose fixtures will provide the most excitement at this early stage of the season.

Teams to watch through game weeks 1 – 5

Manchester United (3) – Wolves (H), Tottenham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H)

Newcastle (4) – Aston Villa (H), Man City (A), Liverpool (H), Brighton (A), Brentford (H)

Liverpool (5) – Chelsea (A), Bournemouth (H), Newcastle (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (A)

Nottingham Forest (16) – Arsenal (A), Sheffield Utd (H), Man Utd (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H)

Luton ( – ) – Brighton (A), Chelsea (A), West Ham (H), Fulham (A)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession.

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession.

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession.

(1) Man City: Attack Rating 3.33 (3), Defensive Rating 2.61 (7), Net Rating 0.72 (3), Possession 65.06% (1), Pace 2.83 (5)

The premier league (and FA cup and Champions League) champions have had a fairly tumultuous summer in regard to transfers, as Riyad Mahrez and Ilkay Gundogan have departed the club and there are multiple rumours surrounding other key members of the treble winning team. Other teams in football would be expecting a decline in expectations and performances when over the course of 2 summers, players of the calibre of Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Mahrez and Gundogan all leave the team. But not Manchester City. With the team still spearheaded by Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, and the masterful Pep Guardiola at the helm, the expectation of City reaching the uncharted promised land of a 4th Premier League title in a row or back-to-back trebles remains clearly in their sights. Nevertheless, for the 1st time in a long time, the hunger of the team may come into question. The team are now in rare territory amongst all sporting dynasties of chasing a 4th consecutive title. The fatigue of winning may present itself following a run of bad games and another challenge against their dominance. Guardiola and the Blues are not showing evidence of complacency. The signings of Mateo Kovacic from Chelsea and Josko Gvardiol from RB Leipzig show Pep’s unremitting ambition to be in a constant state of transition with the aim of staying at the top. Man City could rest on their laurels and continue to play exactly as they did to win a treble and 3-peat. But Pep will instead look to continue to evolve like a cerebral machine and redefine the META of the league.

City open their season with a relatively favourable set of fixtures, with 2 games against newly promoted sides in their opening 5 games and no games against “traditional top 6” opposition.

Season Prediction: Titles Contenders (Top 3 finish)

(2) Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.45 (1), Defensive Rating 3.07 (11), Net Rating 0.38 (4), Possession 59.75% (4), Pace 2.46 (7)

The Gunners found themselves involved in their first real title race since the 2016 season which saw them lose out to Leicester City. Spending 248 days of the season at the top of the league, they were unable to maintain the challenge up to the day that counted most. The silver lining for Mikel Arteta and the young Arsenal squad, however, is that the failed challenge has not appeared to close their window of opportunity. Achieving Champions League qualification for the 1st time since 2016 and sustaining a meaningful title challenge puts the London side high on the list of challengers for the 2023/24 Premier League trophy. Additionally, the club have been busy bolstering an already strong side with a number of summer signings to address previously lacking depth. The fall-off at the end of last season coincided with the loss of William Saliba (to injury) and deteriorated form to key 1st team players. The singings Arteta has managed to make concentrate on those areas, notably focused on defensive minded players. The young Gunners were the number 1 rated attack last season and also had the 2nd highest rated defence before the world cup. The defensive quality declined markedly in the second half of the season which justifies the addition of arguably the best defensive-minded midfielder in the league, a flexible defensive winger, and a top quality, back-up goalkeeper. Lack of depth is no longer an excuse for Arsenal, as Mikel Arteta has assembled one of the most valuable and talented teams in all of Europe.

The Gunners also have a relative encouraging set of fixtures with a likely intense encounter in game week 4 as they match up against another team with eyes for the trophy.

Season Prediction: Title Contenders (Top 3 finish).

(3) Man Utd: Attack Rating 2.43 (8), Defensive Rating 2.37 (3), Net Rating 0.06 (5), Possession 53.82% (6), Pace 3.1 (3)

Following a questionable start in 2022, Ten Hag and his men nearly managed to fight their way into a title race before being pegged back in the middle of season and finishing 3rd. For the red side of Manchester, a Carabao Cup trophy and a 3rd place finish would not typically signal success. However, with the city rivals clearly ahead of them throughout the 2022/23 season, the silverware and Champions League qualification could be a marked springboard for better things to come.

With reinforcement in attack and midfield, and a clear focus on developing into “the best transition team in the world”, Ten Hag has issued a message of intent to the league. As with any team looking to seriously challenge for a title, the identity of the team has to mature. And that it has. Over the previous campaign, the focus on improving Big chance creation and pace was evident. After the World Cup, Manchester United were behind only Manchester City and Liverpool in Big Chances created and maintained a top 3 Pace for the rest of the season.

With Ten Hag developing knowledge of the league and his team becoming more capable of delivering his vision on the pitch, the Red Devils will likely pose a legitimate threat to their city rivals.

Season Prediction: Title Contention (Top 3 finish)

(4) Newcastle: Attack Rating 2.89 (5), Defensive Rating 1.88 (1), Net Rating 1.01 (1), Possession 52.41% (7), Pace 3.2 (2)

The magpies are playing in their first Champions League since 2003 after finishing a dream season in 4th place. Since the Saudi takeover, expectations for the Northern club have skyrocketed, but they are way ahead of schedule and appear set to be competing on multiple fronts in the near future.

Eddie Howe’s team were one of two sides to rank in the top 5 for both attack and defensive rating, having conceded the fewest goals over the course of the season. With their off season recruitment including a mix of premier league experience and world class potential, Newcastle are primed to be a force to be reckoned with in the upcoming season.

The Magpies kick off their campaign with the toughest fixtures of the contenders. Eddie Howe’s men face 4 of last season’s top 7 in their opening 5 games and face an unpredictable Brentford side in game week 5. The title chances of the team may be well and truly over by the end of September, but more likely they will showcase their talent and tenacity and prove that they belong amongst the best.

Season Prediction: Top 5 contention

(5) Liverpool: Attack Rating 2.65 (6), Defensive Rating 3.62 (18), Net Rating -0.97 (13), Possession 60.99% (2), Pace 2.91 (4)

After years of dominating the league, behind Manchester City, with physicality and intensity, Klopp and Liverpool were humbled to a 5th place finish and missing out on Champions League football. The Reds have spent the summer finally addressing the concerns of their aging midfield and have rebuilt a team that is ready to compete. The Merseyside team are seemingly on the verge of another midfield signing on the cusp of the new season which would further raise the hopes of the Anfield faithful.

Unlike Pep and Manchester City, it is still to be seen if Klopp can fully rebuild and reinvent and championship calibre team. The recent signings of Diaz, Nunez and Gakpo, in addition to this summer’s signings are signs of intent. The philosophy of the team is where attention must be. In the 22/23 season, Liverpool created the 2nd most Big chances (behind Man City), but were 18th in Big chances allowed. The only teams that allowed more were Leeds (relegated) and Fulham – a team that relied on attempting to outscore opposition from the start of the season.

To return to the heights of recent seasons, Klopp’s team will have to find balance quickly in a league that will allow no room for error. This will be tested squarely in their opening fixtures which include a tough opening day match away at Chelsea (1st traditional top 6 clash of the season) and tricky fixtures away at Newcastle and at home to Aston Villa.

Season Prediction: Top 5 finish

(6) Brighton: Attack Rating 2.62 (7), Defensive Rating 3.74 (19), Net Rating -1.12 (15), Possession 60.45% (3), Pace 2.76 (6)

Finishing in 6th last season and qualifying for European competition for the first time in the club’s history, Roberto De Zerbi has taken the south coast club to new heights. Such potentially overwhelming success for the Seagulls has come at some cost. Since January, Brighton have seen starting players; Leandro Trossard, Robert Sanchez (GK) and Alexis Mac Allister leave for other premier league clubs and star midfielder Moises Caicedo on the verge of leaving also.

Yet, if any club in the league were to perform recruiting and development miracles, it would be Brighton. The club and manager have gained immense respect from the rest of the league and will not be taken lightly in the coming season. Amongst the remaining squad is still the hugely talented Kaoru Mitoma. Between the tactical competence of De Zerbi and the resilience of his players, Brighton will continue to be a difficult opponent for every other team in the league.

Brighton play host to newly promoted Luton Town for their first ever Premier League match. The energy Luton will likely bring could make this one of the most exciting matches of the season. De Zerbi’s men also face 2 of last season’s top 4 in their opening 5 fixtures which could spell heavy ramifications for those teams early into the campaign.

Season Prediction: Top 10 finish

(7) Aston Villa: Attack Rating 2.36 (11), Defensive Rating 2.48 (5), Net Rating -0.12 (7), Possession 49.42% (10), Pace 1.99 (13)

When Unai Emery took over from Steven Gerrard mid-way through the season, Aston Villa looked primed for a scrappy season and success would have been avoiding relegation. What ultimately happened should not be understated. Emery and the Aston Villa squad launched themselves into the European Conference League spots in impressive style. In the final stretch of the season, Aston Villa conceded the fewest goals, maintained the number 1 rated defence and won 7 of their last 11 games.

Aston Villa have also bolstered their ranks with marquee signings from Europe’s top leagues making the Midlands club the official “sleeper” for the 2023/24 season.

Unai Emery has 2 difficult away trips to navigate in the opening 5 fixtures at St James’s Park (GW1) and Anfield (GW4).

Season Prediction: European football (Top 5 contention)

(8) Tottenham: Attack Rating 3.19 (4), Defensive Rating 3.25 (15), Net Rating -0.06 (6), Possession 49.92% (9), Pace 2.34 (9)

Following a promising start in 22/23, Tottenham experienced a chaotic ride for most of the season which came to a head when Antonio Conte left the club following an outburst against the culture at the club. Going into the World Cup in November, Spurs were amongst the elite and considered an outside chance to win the league. Ultimately, the team never seemed to fully “gel” or develop a functioning identity, other than relying on their talisman – Harry Kane.

On the opening day of the 23/24 season, the biggest unknown for Spurs is shockingly not how new manager Ange Postecoglou will fare in his new role in the Premier League, but how Tottenham move forward without Harry Kane. The England striker is on the verge of completing a move to German champions, Bayern Munich, and the manager, the team and the club will have huge hole to fill. During Harry Kane’s run of 213 Premier League goals (2nd most in Premier League history), the north London club have achieved their highest EPL finish and reached a club best Champions League finish (runners-up).

Summer transfer activity and pre-season has been hopeful for Spurs, but developing a connection with a new manager, taking the club into a “post Harry Kane” era and developing a solid identity is going to be a difficult challenge for the club as they look to regain their position within the elite “top 6” of the league.

Ange opens his Premier League career with a tough away London Derby at Brentford before hosting Manchester United in game week 2. The team then play 2 newly promoted sides over the next 3 games which should give the team a solid foundation to build on.

Season Prediction: Top 8 finish

(9) Brentford: Attack Rating 3.34 (2), Defensive Rating 2.41 (4), Net Rating 0.93 (2), Possession 43.47% (16), Pace 3.34 (1)

Over the 2022/23 season, Brentford were 1 of the 2 teams to rank top 5 in both attack and defence. Averaging 43% possession (16th in the league), Brentford proved to be one of the toughest teams to break down without the ball and were deadly when they had it. Thomas Frank has managed to get his team to execute counter-attacking football perfectly and using strong, quick, intelligent attackers to create goal scoring threats with supreme efficiency. The team maintained the highest pace in the league all season (creating the most Big chances per time in possession). The output will likely decrease in the early parts of the new season with Ivan Toney suspended (breaking league gambling guidelines), but the Bees have earned the league’s respect. Unless the team show significant signs of decline, the rest of the league will approach them as a threat. That reverence will likely support the team to another comfortable finish in the league.

Thomas Frank and his men open the season with 3 London Derbies in a row before hosting Bournemouth and going away to Newcastle in game week 5.

Season Prediction: Mid-table finish

(10) Fulham: Attack Rating 2.3 (13), Defensive Rating 3.08 (12), Net Rating -0.78 (12), Possession 48.6% (11), Pace 1.77 (16)

Season Prediction: Mid-table finish

(11) Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 1.72 (18), Defensive Rating 2.37 (2), Net Rating -0.65 (10), Possession 46.2% (14), Pace 1.66 (19)

Season Prediction: Low/mid-table finish

(12) Chelsea: Attack Rating 1.48 (19), Defensive Rating 3.19 (14), Net Rating -1.71 (19), Possession 58.95% (5), Pace 1.72 (18)

Season Prediction: Top 8 finish

(13) Wolves: Attack Rating 1.29 (20), Defensive Rating 3.05 (10), Net Rating -1.76 (20), Possession 50.09% (8), Pace 1.21 (20)