Premier League Season Rankings

*Note from the author: the premier league table is as clear an indicator of a team’s success during the season as any other metric. My issue lies in the lack of nuance or objectivity (or subjectivity – which is part of the essence of football) in the table as a ranking of any team’s ability or authority in the league. The reasoning for developing these rankings is as an attempt to address that. Until a team’s final position is mathematically secured, these rankings simply represent my (just 1 single person’s) opinion on each teams ranking as some combination of table position, expected finishing position and difficulty as opposition (i.e. Man City ranked 1 means I think they are still the most difficult team to get a result against and are my pick to take the trophy, even though Arsenal currently sit top of the Premier League).

Game week 16 – 18 preview

On December 26th, the Premier League will return for game week 16 after a 6-week hiatus for the Qatar 2022 World Cup. The opening 15 fixtures of the season included the staples of any premier league campaign; explosive derbies (6 – 3 in the first Manchester Derby of the season) shocking upsets (a first PL defeat, in 30 games, at Anfield for Liverpool against Leeds), a record start to a PL season (Arsenal’s best start to a PL season), and much more. The quality of the Premier League season almost made the World Cup break seem like a distraction. Somewhat surprisingly, the calibre of football, the drama and the events that unfolded at the winter tournament have set up an exhilarating back drop for the 2nd part of this season.

While Messi and Mbappe (and Cristiano Ronaldo) rightly have the headlines following the World Cup, the trajectory of the premier league season will surely have been impacted by occasion.

• Relatively disappointing tournaments for “star” players in the premier league will either act as motivation or become a weight that drags them down.

• The injury to Gabriel Jesus sees the league leaders forced into relying on their light depth for up to 3 months

• The value and demand for certain well-performing players will result in an intense January transfer window.

That said, the Premier League needs no extra influence or incentive to deliver the invigorating brand of football that is expected. Heading into the 2nd part of the season, every team has an identity that is either to be maintained for success, or redefined to improve the team’s prospects.

A determining factor this season will continue to be each team’s depth and fortitude. Prior to the World Cup break, Premier League fixtures were congested just to account for the winter tournament. Now we are on the other side of the tournament, the fixtures need to account for postponed fixtures, domestic competitions, European competition, and whatever else is thrown into the mix as well.

Season/Stats Overview

• Three teams stand clear above the rest, in the league table, in net rating, and in these rankings (Manchester City, Arsenal & Newcastle), only one of which would have been a sure pick to be so before the season started

• Only 2 teams currently rank in the top 5 for attack rating and defensive rating (Arsenal & Newcastle)

• A handful of teams look to be in legitimate trouble of going down to the Championship (Leicester, Bournemouth, Leeds, West Ham, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Wolves) – currently separated by 7 points.

• Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea lead the league in average possession per game, while Brentford, Liverpool and Manchester United lead the league in Pace.

• Manchester City, Liverpool and Brentford lead the league in Big Chances created per game. Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle allow the fewest Big Chances per game.

• Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Wolves create the fewest Big Chances per game, while Leeds, Liverpool and Fulham allow the most Big Chances per game.

• Liverpool and Manchester City have the most shots on target so far this season, while Arsenal and Manchester City have allowed the fewest shots on target.

• Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Manchester City lead the league in Big Chance conversion rate. Liverpool have missed the most Big Chances.

• Manchester City and Liverpool have collected the fewest yellow cards (11 & 12 respectively) and Chelsea and Wolves have seen Red the most (both 3 times).

Teams to watch through game weeks 16 – 18

Arsenal (2) – West Ham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (H)

Newcastle (3) – Leicester (A), Leeds (H), Arsenal (A)

Brentford (11) – Tottenham (H), West Ham (A), Liverpool (H)

Aston Villa (12) – Liverpool (H), Tottenham (A), Wolves (H)

Leicester (13) – Newcastle (A), Liverpool (A), Fulham (H)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession

1. ( - ) Manchester City: Attack Rating 3.89 (1), Defensive Rating 3.05 (10), Net Rating 0.84 (3), Possession 66.56% (1), Pace 2.68 (6)

Still top of these rankings, sat 2nd in the table is Manchester City. Manchester City went into the last 2 fixtures before the break, surely hoping to be top of the league. Instead, they saw “rivals” Arsenal pick up all 6 available points, while Ivan Toney delivered major underdog stakes by netting twice and taking all 3 points from Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. The Blues have not done much wrong, but do sit 5 points off the league leaders Arsenal, with probably the toughest schedule (in regards to fixture congestion, not strength) having advanced to the next round of the Carabao Cup. Any other team in this position would not be top of the rankings. Had this piece been written before the start of the World Cup, or had Gabriel Jesus not been injured, they likely would not be. But the number 1 deciding factor at the top of table this season, may well be fortitude and strength in depth. As Arsenal are the team being compared to the sky blue juggernauts, this simply makes Manchester City the obvious choice.

Erling Haaland has had 6 weeks to rest (update, reboot, train in a hyperbolic time chamber – whatever his species does) and looks to have not missed a beat scoring with a sublime finish against Liverpool in their Carabao Cup tie. By Comparison, Arsenal’s front man is side-lined for a possible 3 months with a knee injury. If technical quality and deployed system are neck-and-neck between the top two teams, the gap in depth is a distinctive separator. 5 points and two games to play between the two teams still favours the premier league holders.

Nonetheless, Pep’s team have shown that they are not invincible. A busy January that includes the Old Trafford leg of the Manchester Derby could dent City’s hopes of a Premier League 3-peat. Compiled with their aim of winning the Champions League Trophy, which still evades the grasp of Manchester City, how Pep chooses to prioritise could also significantly alter the course of the Premier League season.

Manchester City restart their campaign away at Leeds, at home to Everton, then away at Chelsea. As with most stretches, less than maximum points is at least a disappointment for Pep Guardiola. With the 5-point gap to chase and the risks associated with their packed schedule, maximum points will likely be non-negotiable.

2. ( - ) Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.57 (2), Defensive Rating 1.77 (2), Net Rating 1.8 (2), Possession 58.29% (4), Pace 2.56 (8)

The only major blip in the season so far for Arsenal would be the 3 – 1 loss at the hands of Manchester United at Old Trafford. Even in that game, the Gunners would not have been amiss in feeling they were the better team and deserved more. They sit top of the Premier League table, 5 points clear of the holders, Manchester City, and boast one of the (top 5) best starts in the history of the Premier League. They have the 2nd highest rated attack and defence in the league, playing some of their best football in years. Individuals are also performing at elite levels throughout the team and the young Gunners pose a real threat on multiple competitive fronts.

All that considered, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners are ranked second at this point in the season for one simple reason. Gabriel Jesus.

With the crucial 1 – 0 win away at Stamford Bridge in game week 15 and the Brentford victory over Manchester City pushing the lead to 5-points, Arsenal should have been expected to ride their momentum as the favourites from now until raising the trophy or capitulating. However, the injury to Gabriel Jesus completely changes outlook. Though many factors can be attributed to their early success, Jesus was the talisman. For the upcoming fixtures, they will have to rely on Eddie Nketiah to provide a substitute for Jesus’s skill and goal creation, and for the team to replace his energy and tenacity. Arteta’s men will continue to amass wins and collect points, but inevitably at a slower rate.

Arsenal restart their challenge with a much tougher set of fixtures than their current title rivals. They host a London Derby against West Ham before travelling to Brighton for their first league game against the Seagulls this season. Game week 18 sees them host Eddie Howe’s Newcastle in Arsenal’s first game this season against one of the current top 3 teams.

3. ( - ) Newcastle: Attack Rating 3.34 (5), Defensive Rating 1.52 (1), Net Rating 1.82 (1), Possession 51.04% (8), Pace 2.76 (4)

3rd in the table and 3rd in the rankings are Newcastle. The Magpies are the league’s in form team, riding a 5-game win streak coming into the 2nd part of the season. If it were a mistake to not take the northernmost team seriously before, now it would be wilful ignorance. Top 5 in both attack rating and defensive, and holding the highest net rating in the league, Newcastle are not this high by accident. Early slip ups cost Eddie Howe’s team valuable points, but they have only move from strength to strength. During their charge, the Magpies have beaten Chelsea and Tottenham, and taken a point from both Manchester United and Manchester City. They have quality all over the pitch and depth that rivals the “traditional top 6”. With cash available to bolster their squad in January and the (imminent) return of Isak and ASM, they are only just getting started.

Before the international break, Newcastle produced two statement wins away at Southampton (>600 mile round trip) and at home to Chelsea. They take their 5-game win streak to Leicester, a team looking to develop their own winning streak, before hosting Leeds then travelling to the current league leaders.

A strong run for the Magpies could see the race for top 3 decided relatively early, with Newcastle being a surprise entry. Whilst the other “top 6 (or should we 7?)” teams need to navigate European football, Eddie Howe’s men could head into the final months of the season comparatively fresh due to a more forgiving schedule, and in an ideal scenario for the Geordies, already having claimed some silverware from their Carabao Cup run.

The rest…

4. ( - ) Manchester United: Attack Rating 2.41 (11), Defensive Rating 3.06 (11), Net Rating -0.65 (8), Possession 52.07% (6), Pace 2.94 (3)

5. ( - ) Tottenham: Attack Rating 3.56 (3), Defensive Rating 2.94 (8), Net Rating 0.62 (4), Possession 50.31% (10), Pace 2.61 (7)

6. (↑2) Liverpool: Attack Rating 2.85 (6), Defensive Rating 3.71 (19), Net Rating -0.86 (12), Possession 62.19% (2), Pace 2.94 (2)

7. ( - ) Brighton: Attack Rating 2.46 (10), Defensive Rating 2.83 (6), Net Rating -0.37 (6), Possession 55.46% (5), Pace 2.71 (5)

8. (↓2) Chelsea: Attack Rating 1.83 (14), Defensive Rating 3.07 (12), Net Rating -1.24 (16), Possession 58.36% (3), Pace 1.46 (19)

9. (↑1) Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 1.74 (15), Defensive Rating 2.4 (5), Net Rating -0.66 (9), Possession 47.94% (12), Pace 1.89 (14)

10. (↓1) Fulham: Attack Rating 2.8 (7), Defensive Rating 3.61 (18), Net Rating -0.81 (10), Possession 45.56% (15), Pace 2.26 (11)

11. (↑2) Brentford: Attack Rating 3.48 (4), Defensive Rating 3.42 (16), Net Rating 0.06 (5), Possession 44.42% (18), Pace 3.97 (1)

12. (↑4) Aston Villa: Attack Rating 1.98 (13), Defensive Rating 2.85 (7), Net Rating -0.87 (13), Possession 47.39% (13), Pace 1.66 (17)

13. (↑1) Leicester: Attack Rating 2.66 (9), Defensive Rating 3.53 (17), Net Rating -0.87 (14), Possession 50.63% (9), Pace 1.6 (18)

14. (↓3) Everton: Attack Rating 1.29 (19), Defensive Rating 2.26 (4), Net Rating -0.98 (15), Possession 44.67% (16), Pace 1.93 (13)

15. ( - ) Leeds: Attack Rating 2.68 (8), Defensive Rating 4.44 (20), Net Rating -1.75 (18), Possession 51.06% (7), Pace 2.55 (9)

16. (↓4) West Ham: Attack Rating 1.42 (17), Defensive Rating 2.04 (3), Net Rating -0.62 (7), Possession 45.58% (14), Pace 1.69 (16)

17. (↑1) Bournemouth: Attack Rating 2.41 (12), Defensive Rating 3.27 (13), Net Rating -0.86 (11), Possession 38.01% (20), Pace 1.71 (15)

18. (↑2) Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.38 (18), Defensive Rating 3.41 (14), Net Rating -2.03 (19), Possession 40.07% (19), Pace 2.3 (10)

19. (↓2) Southampton: Attack Rating 1.7 (16), Defensive Rating 3.42 (15), Net Rating -1.71 (17), Possession 44.42% (17), Pace 1.97 (12)

20. (↓1) Wolves: Attack Rating 0.96 (20), Defensive Rating 3 (9), Net Rating -2.04 (20), Possession 49.46% (11), Pace 1.29 (20)