Premier League Season Rankings: Game week 11 – 13

We have now seen more than a quarter of the 2022/23 premier league fixtures played and are 5 game weeks away from the pivotal winter, world cup break. The next 5 premier league game weeks are beginning to look increasingly like a gauntlet for everyone, as teams prepare for at least 6 games in the next 26 days. Those teams fortunate enough to be playing in European competition will be planning for up to 8 games in the same period, with a number of players eyeing a deep run in this winter’s most prestigious football competition.

The challenge of maintaining the high level of intensity demanded by every premier league fixture while striving to stay in shape for the world cup could see any team’s hopes slip away in remarkable fashion. Compound that to the unpredictability of this (like any other) premier league season does make for titillating narratives. Whilst there are similar themes to most top-flight seasons; a newly promoted side sitting rock bottom of the table, the “traditional top 6” making up 5 of the top 6 spots in the table, and controversial officiating making headlines, it is fair to say no-one could have predicted the season playing out the way it has so far:

- Manchester City are still not top of the table. Handed their first defeat of the season at a raucous Anfield means the heavy favourites are 4 points adrift the blazing Gunners at the top of the table. The loss also means another season passes that adds to the legacy of Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles.

- Arsenal continue to collect wins, now boasting their best start to a premier league campaign, and best start to a season since 1903 in the 2nd division, with 9 wins from 10.

- Antonio Conte’s Spurs side keep marching ceremoniously in what appears to be a legitimate title challenge.

- The threat of Newcastle breaking into the top 6 looks likely to happen sooner than later (this season?)

- The talent (on paper) of Aston Villa, Leicester, Nottingham Forest and Wolves has not protected them the bleak severity of a relegation battle.

The next 3 game weeks are cramped tight, with most teams playing the first 2 games across the next 6 days. As always, the premier league is not decided in December, but this international break will act as a crucial marker for the journey of most teams. Staying healthy and rotating squads will inevitably be a priority, but heading into the break with momentum and a helping of points will be an undoubted boost for those that can grab their share.

Teams to watch through Game weeks 11 – 13

Tottenham (3) – Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H), Bournemouth (A)

Man United (5) – Tottenham (H), Chelsea (A), West Ham (H)

Liverpool (6) – West Ham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Leeds (H)

Fulham (13) – Aston Villa (H), Leeds (A), Everton (H)

Nottingham Forest (20) – Brighton (A), Liverpool (H), Arsenal (A)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession

1. ( - ) Manchester City: Attack Rating 4.36 (1), Defensive Rating 2.83 (9), Net Rating 1.53 (2), Possession 67.47% (1), Pace 2.81 (3)

After 10 games played, Manchester City sit in second place of the premier league table and are still everybody’s favourite to lift the trophy in spring 2023. From the individual talent of the squad, the intelligence of the coaching and personnel, to the depth of the squad, Manchester City are clearly built on another level to the rest of the league. The combination leads to this team having scored the most goals and created the most “big chances”, and consequently have the number 1 rated attack in the league.

However, following the loss to Liverpool in their most recent game, City fall to 4 points off the current league leaders having failed their first real test of the season thus far. The standard set by Pep Guardiola for his team can be seen to mar the dominance they have shown so far, but has done nothing to justify them relinquishing the top spot of these rankings. A 6 – 3 score line in the first Manchester derby (flattering for Manchester United) and a 4 – 0 rout of Southampton the following week are clearer examples of the authority Pep’s team have over the league. A high-flying Arsenal and the early season blips from Manchester City are the only things keeping the race to the title appear competitive.

Frighteningly, City have actually collected 3 more points so far this year than at the same point in last year’s title winning campaign. The only team that could conceivably sustain their early season form, without major drop-offs, would be this City side. Due to the rearranged fixtures against Tottenham (the mourning period) and this week’s game against Arsenal (Arsenal’s rescheduled Europa League game), Man City have an extended break to regroup after their first loss of the season at Anfield and can prepare for a swift bounce back in their following 2 fixtures.

They play a Brighton team that are struggling for form in their next premier league game (in game week 12) then travel to Leicester the week after. Between the 2 games, City face one of the tougher European challenges, and a sort of homecoming for Haaland, with a visit to Signal Iduna Park.

2. (↑1) Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.72 (4), Defensive Rating 2.26 (6), Net Rating 1.46 (3), Possession 56.91% (4), Pace 2.55 (7)

Moving up to the second spot are the current league leaders, Arsenal. A top 4 push now looks like the minimum goal for the high-firing Gunners. Holding a 4-point lead over last year’s winners, with back-to-back league wins over their North London title rivals Tottenham and last year’s runner-up Liverpool, the ability to maintain the charge is now the only thing in the way of the young Arsenal team and a fairy-tale finish to the 2022/23 season… That, and likely 2 games against Manchester City on the over side of the new year.

1 of the 2 teams with 3 wins in their last 3 league games, including the statement win in the North London Derby and a spirited victory over Liverpool, Arsenal also kept 2 clean sheets against Bodø/Glimt in their mid-week Europa league fixtures. Accounting for those early season triumphs, the most noteworthy game in their recent fixtures might be the 1 – 0 victory over Leeds at Elland Road. After the Thursday night trip to Norway, the young Arsenal team went away to one of the high intensity teams in the league, in front of a typically boisterous crowd, and were able to escape a game that they were truly outplayed (at least in the 2nd half) with the maximum 3 points. This was the exact type of game where Arteta’s team may have been expected to come up bland. Taking the 3 points only adds to the flavour of the narrative that this Arsenal team is different.

Following the mourning period, the Gunners have a rearranged Europa League game against PSV this Thursday so only have 2 premier league games over the next 2 game weeks. They go away to 18th placed Southampton and then host bottom-dwelling Nottingham Forest. There are no give-aways in the premier league, but any less than 6 points would be disappointing for the league leaders.

3. (↓1) Tottenham: Attack Rating 3.86 (3), Defensive Rating 2.02 (3), Net Rating 1.84 (1), Possession 48.35% (12), Pace 2.46 (8)

Tottenham drop 1 place in the rankings to 3rd following the loss to Arsenal in the North London Derby in game week 8, but bounced back decisively with tough victories against Brighton and Everton. The quick recovery means Antonio Conte and his team, playing a rock-solid style, stay within striking distance of the only two teams that have outperformed them so far.

While Arsenal and Manchester City have outperformed Spurs in points (obviously the most important area ultimately), the ruling based on actual performances is more subjective. The football/Joga Bonito purists will decree that Tottenham play an unsustainable style of anti-football, but these stats validate the approach of Conte and his men. Tottenham are the only team with a top-4 rated attack and defence, and that translates to the number 1 net rating in the league. Regardless of style bias and team allegiances, it would be disingenuous to ignore the identity that Antonio Conte has cultivated at Tottenham. The team are difficult to breakdown and will continue to prove a difficult side to beat. The strike force of the England captain, Harry Kane and Son is a force to be reckoned with. The additions of Richarlison and Kulusevski have bolstered their attack sufficiently, allowing the team to trust they can win games while creating relatively few chances.

With 10 games played, the system is working. Tottenham are 9th in the league in big chances created per game, with the highest big chance conversion rate (55%) in the league. They also hold their opposition to the fewest big chances per game in the league. Other than the loss to their North London rivals, Tottenham have quietly gone about their business with an unsympathetic efficiency. They dispatched of the number 1 and 2 rated defences at the time (Brighton and Everton, respectively) over the last 2 games.

The Spurs face one of the more difficult runs of games between now and the international break. As Harry Kane is pivotal to their success and a key piece to any England hopes in this winter’s tournament, his conditioning over the following few weeks will be under extra scrutiny. They face a fascinating battle of strategy as they visit Ten Hag’s team at Old Trafford next, followed by a visit from the ever-exciting Tyneside team. The Champions League fixture against Sporting Lisbon, before hosting Bournemouth, adds an extra layer of complexity to their arduous run-in.

4. (↑2) Chelsea: Attack Rating 2.55 (8), Defensive Rating 3.23 (11), Net Rating -0.68 (11), Possession 61% (3), Pace 1.7 (14)

Potentially against their current quality of football, in 4th place on the rankings are Chelsea. Statistically, there is lot to be desired from Chelsea, but in the last 3 league games, Graham Potter and his “Quidditch ball” has seen a significant improvement in this Chelsea side. Over the last 3 premier league game weeks, Chelsea and Arsenal are the only teams to collect the maximum 9 points. In the same period however, the Blues own the number 1 rated defence, having conceded the fewest goals, and scored fewer goals than only Manchester City and Newcastle.

The extended loss of Reece James to a knee injury, which will keep him out of the World Cup, will be a big blow to Graham Potter, but Chelsea have quality personnel to step up to the task whether the team setup in their 4-at-the-back systems or 3-at-the-back with wing backs.

The Blues have 3 challenging tests in the next few games, with a big 6 clash against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge in game week 12 that could be a significant momentum shifter for either side. For Potter and Chelsea, it could be a harsh setback heading into the final few games before the winter break or the start to a magical debut season for another Chelsea manager.

5. (↓1) Manchester United: Attack Rating 2.41 (10), Defensive Rating 3.5 (15), Net Rating -1.09 (12), Possession 51.78% (9), Pace 3.02 (4)

Down a place after the humbling defeat to Manchester City in game week 8 are Manchester United. The Red devils have rebounded in a sense, since their nightmare day across Manchester, winning the following game away at Everton. They also managed a point at home against a tricky Newcastle side, where both teams left feeling begrudged by the officiating crew as clear penalty decisions were ignored on either side. Ten Hag’s team also picked up the maximum 6 points in their 2 Europa League games against the Cypriot side, Omonia Nicosia. To say Man United were comfortable in any of the games would be misleading, but to say they were close to losing would also be incorrect.

Ten Hag is clearly trying to integrate a very deliberate offensive style to the team (his Ajax team were typified by the 1-3-6 shape that developed over phases of play) which will inevitably take time for a new team to understand and implement. The challenge with such an approach at Manchester United is the fan base are not accustomed to sustained periods without tangible success and will likely turn against any approach that does not deliver immediate results. Without major honours this year, the Reds will be looking at 6 years without a major trophy. The locker room politics and purposeful approach of Erik Ten Hag will likely divide the fan base further if results begin to go against the team.

A common complaint amongst some United fans in the apparent lack of conviction when the team attack. The stats disagree as Manchester United are currently creating big chances at a particularly high efficiency (4th in Pace – big chances created per time in possession). The Ten Hag system and the efficiency of the team’s attack and defence will get some harsh tests over the next 3 games. The Reds face tactical battles against Tottenham in their next game followed up with a testing trip to West London against Chelsea.

6. (↓1) Liverpool: Attack Rating 3.14 (5), Defensive Rating 3.71 (16), Net Rating -0.57 (10), Possession 62.14% (2), Pace 2.82 (5)

A poor start to the season that sees Liverpool 14 points off the top of the table looked all but over going into game weeks 9 and 10 where they faced the top 2 teams in the league back-to-back. 3 points total from the 2 games was not out of the question, but after a loss to Arsenal at the Emirates, it seemed like Manchester City were in pole position to put the nails in the coffin of Liverpool’s premier league title race (and maybe top 4 hopes). Injuries to Trent Alexander Arnold and Diaz also compounded the troubles for Klopp before their clash at Anfield. Recovering like true “mentality monsters”, Liverpool played out a near perfect game on both sides of the pitch as Mo Salah led Liverpool to a dramatic win over the title favourites in front of a characteristically riotous Kop which erupted like few stadiums can. The performance and assist by Alisson, which led to the classiest of finishes by Mo Salah, may prove to be the turning point in the side’s season that finally propels them in the right direction up the premier league table.

Given their current injury crisis, the team are still notably figuring out their best line-up and approach for premier league games. Offensively, the team are 2nd in big chances created per game and play at a high pace while dominating the ball. Logically, this means the team will likely score plenty of goals. The looming issue is clearly the defence. Currently ranked 16th, playing with a makeshift back 4, including James Milner at right-back, Liverpool were able to stymie the number 1 rated attack. The sustainability of the setup will no doubt be a concern for Liverpool as the season progresses, but having passed one of the most difficult tests of the season, the outlook must surely be positive.

Following such an impressive performance, Liverpool have 3 relatively appealing fixtures to further improve their position. Gaining and maintaining ground on the top 3 teams will mean collecting maximum points effectively throughout the rest of the season, but with upcoming games against West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds (all teams in the bottom half of the league and bottom 10 in attack rating), any drop point will be considered indefensible.

7. (↑2) Newcastle: Attack Rating 2.83 (7), Defensive Rating 1.82 (1), Net Rating 1.01 (4), Possession 51.5% (10), Pace 2.44 (6)

Climbing up the rankings to 7th, and sitting 6th in the league table are the Magpies. Seasons go by and teams stake claim to the prized top-4 spots in the table and breaking into the esteemed top 6. Newcastle are poised to potentially disrupt both groups. The lack of European football gives Newcastle extra rest throughout the season against their target competition and allows slightly more flexibility and security in their current squad depth.

Over the last 3 game weeks, statistically, Newcastle have been elite. They have the 2nd highest rated attack and defence in the 3 games played resulting in the highest net rating. They have also created the most “big chances” over the period which steered Eddie Howe’s men to picking up 6 points in 2 dominant performances over Fulham and Brentford, before going to Old Trafford and securing a valuable point in as theatrical a 0 – 0 draw there might be this season. Continuing their trend of feeling they have missed out on obtainable points, Newcastle should have been awarded a penalty early in the 1st half that could have led to very difficult afternoon for Manchester United. The misfortunate was “rewarded” later, as Man United were also deprived of 2 potential penalties before the game was over, and the Magpies were then forced to hold on dearly to escape with the point.

Eddie Howe is confronted with another away trip to top 6 opposition in game week 12 against the Antonio Conte machine, with home games against Everton and Aston Villa on either side. Possessing the number 1 rated defence, mirroring the 7-point haul from their last 3 games in their next 3 fixtures is not unfeasible and would send strong waves through to the teams at the top of the league that the Tyneside club are here to compete.

8. (↓1) Brentford: Attack Rating 4.15 (2), Defensive Rating 3.39 (14), Net Rating 0.76 (5), Possession 44.17% (13), Pace 4.27 (1)

Falling slightly following some poor results against Newcastle and Bournemouth are the Bees. Brentford are still playing at the highest pace in the league but have had their momentum slashed following a humbling by Newcastle and coming up blank against a surprisingly revitalised Bournemouth.

Despite the slowed form, the Bees are riding high on the shoulders of Ivan Toney. As long as the England front man is motivated (whether that’s for an England spot in the World Cup, loyalty and competitiveness or for further progression), Brentford will continue to be a threat. The team are 13th in possession but maintain their status as the team with the highest pace, and Ivan Toney is essential to that. The relentlessness in his approach to attacking “lost causes” and seeking goal scoring opportunities allows Brentford to attempt to soak up pressure and attack almost solely on the break. As with other “smaller” market teams in the league today, and historically, this approach tends to do well in spurts but is also prone to giving up too many opportunities against better teams which results in tough losses. The 5 – 1 loss in game week 9 to Newcastle was proof of their vulnerabilities. If defensive improvements can be established, the Bees will remain in a strong position for a top half premier league finish.

The next game against Chelsea represents the type of game that Brentford relish. Chelsea are an opponent that hold a lot of the ball but without creating too many chances, while also being prone to giving up a lot of chances on the other end. The Bees then have 2 big clashes against struggling opposition in Aston Villa and Wolves.

9. (↓1) Brighton: Attack Rating 2.41 (9), Defensive Rating 2.4 (8), Net Rating 0.01 (6), Possession 52.91% (6), Pace 2.81 (2)

1 point from a possible 9 sees Brighton drop to 9th in the rankings while they sit 7th in the table. The Seagulls went into game week 8 with the highest rated defence in the league. Over the last 3 games, they have conceded 6 goals and had the 18th rated defence over the period. The saving grace for Roberto De Zerbi in his Premier League welcome is that these were difficult games. 2 top 6 opponents and the compelling Ivan Toney led Brentford attack would be excusable for forcing almost any team to stumble.

Unfortunately for De Zerbi, the Premier League grind does not wait for anybody. The Seagulls get slight respite with the only “easy game” in the league presently – Nottingham Forest at home. That precedes an away game vs last year’s champions, who will be itching to rally from their 1st loss of the season, and then playing host to more top 6 opposition when Chelsea visit the south coast.

10. (↑5) West Ham: Attack Rating 1.74 (16), Defensive Rating 1.88 (2), Net Rating -0.14 (8), Possession 44.04% (15), Pace 1.12 (16)

Climbing high in the rankings after commanding performances are the Hammers. Losing 5 of their first 7 games saw David Moyes’s men looking up the table despairingly. Hammers’ fans will have entered the season eyeing places to secure European football as the goal. A top half finish may now be more realistic, but after a strong run of games, they find themselves with renewed hope for more optimistic heights.

In game weeks 8 – 10, West Ham were 1 of the 4 teams (Bournemouth, Chelsea & Newcastle the others) to be top 5 in both attack and defensive rating. David Moyes’s team are one of the few teams that are finding success through defence. The 16th rated attack have only just started to find goals consistently, with Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paquetá building an exciting partnership. But when the attack is not firing, the West Ham defence has been terrific. Rated 2nd in the league to only Newcastle, they are currently allowing the 2nd fewest big chances per game and look ready to begin a mid-season charge towards the top end of the table.

The start of the journey won’t be easy though. The next 3 games sees West Ham visit Anfield, where Liverpool are looking to revive their own season aspirations, followed by Bournemouth (since their 9 – 0 demolition at the hands of Liverpool, the Cherries are the only undefeated team in the league) coming to the London Stadium, and then rounded out with an ever anticipated trip to Old Trafford. To further complicate proceedings, the Hammers also need to navigate their way around their Europa Conference League game against the Danish side, Silkeborg.

The rest…

11. (↑1) Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 2.14 (12), Defensive Rating 2.26 (5), Net Rating -0.12 (7), Possession 43.93% (16), Pace 2.44 (9)

12. (↓1) Everton: Attack Rating 1.59 (17), Defensive Rating 2.04 (4), Net Rating -0.45 (9), Possession 41.73% (19), Pace 1.91 (11)

13. (↓3) Fulham: Attack Rating 2.92 (6), Defensive Rating 4.14 (19), Net Rating -1.22 (13), Possession 44.16% (14), Pace 2.21 (12)

14. (↑4) Bournemouth: Attack Rating 2.06 (14), Defensive Rating 3.35 (13), Net Rating -1.29 (14), Possession 36.55% (20), Pace 1.23 (19)

15. (↓2) Leeds: Attack Rating 2.11 (13), Defensive Rating 3.8 (17), Net Rating -1.68 (16), Possession 51.91% (8), Pace 2.66 (10)

16. (↓2) Wolves: Attack Rating 0.67 (20), Defensive Rating 2.39 (7), Net Rating -1.72 (17), Possession 52.41% (7), Pace 1.29 (20)

17. ( - ) Southampton: Attack Rating 1.86 (15), Defensive Rating 3.34 (12), Net Rating -1.47 (15), Possession 42.82% (18), Pace 1.91 (15)

18. (↓2) Aston Villa: Attack Rating 1.15 (19), Defensive Rating 2.91 (10), Net Rating -1.76 (18), Possession 50.89% (11), Pace 1.4 (17)

19. (↑1) Leicester: Attack Rating 2.17 (11), Defensive Rating 5.03 (20), Net Rating -2.86 (20), Possession 53.98% (5), Pace 1.4 (18)

20. (↓1) Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.19 (18), Defensive Rating 4.05 (18), Net Rating -2.85 (19), Possession 43.71% (17), Pace 1.91 (13)