Premier League Season Rankings: Game week 14 – 15

*Note from the author: the premier league table is as clear an indicator of a team’s success during the season as any other metric. My issue lies in the lack of nuance or objectivity (or subjectivity – which is part of the essence of football) in the table as a ranking of any team’s ability or authority in the league. The reasoning for developing these rankings is as an attempt to address that. Until a team’s final position is mathematically secured, these rankings simply represent my (just 1 single person’s) opinion on each teams ranking as some combination of table position, expected finishing position and difficulty as opposition (i.e. Man City ranked 1 means I think they are still the most difficult team to get a result against and are my pick to take the trophy, even though Arsenal currently sit top of the Premier League).

The Premier League and its fans relentlessly declare that the Premier League is the best league in the world. Though the statement is heavily impacted by bias, the rationale usually boils down to the competitive nature of the league and the excitement that builds from every fixture through to the final weeks of the season in May. This season has been no different.

Central to this season’s spectacle is Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. The 2021/22 runners-up (by 1 point) find themselves in 9th place and 15 points off the top of the table. This has opened up space for the 2 North London clubs to lead the chasing pack to any hopes of depriving Manchester City of another Premier League trophy. Crazily, Liverpool have also been influential in the events at the bottom of the table. Over the past 3 game weeks, they have inconceivably given up 3 points twice to teams destined for a relegation battle. Nonetheless, they are still a team to be reckoned with. They proved this as they remain the only team to have beaten Manchester City so far this season.

The reason for Liverpool, or any other team’s struggles, could be linked to considerations by players based around the world cup, or the impact of the rearranged fixtures. In any case, the last 3 game weeks have provided more depth to the overall narrative and insights into the future for each team.

Even with the irregular schedule and the extended winter break for the World Cup, the drama of the league remains supreme. Relative to the Premier League, the placement of the World Cup in the centre of a potentially spectacular season, could reduce the drama of the World Cup to feeling akin to any other midseason (extended) international break.

Regardless of the feeling, the World Cup remains football’s most prestigious tournament and an opportunity to represent your country on a phenomenal scale. The value of said opportunity is probably unfathomable to fans, but the impact on players and teams planning and decision making is very apparent. The reaction from Varane to his injury is evidence of just how much the opportunity means and how quickly it can be lost. The final 2 Premier League games before the break are worth the same as any 2 games later in the season, but, for a host of players, much more will be at risk. For Gareth Southgate, key players to his setup (Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Mason Mount, etc.) will be expected to perform at high levels over the next 2 weeks, meaning he and the enthusiastic England fans will be clutching at straws upon every kick/fall.

Teams to watch through Game weeks 14 – 15

Arsenal (2) – Chelsea (A), Wolves (A)

Newcastle (3) – Southampton (A), Chelsea (H)

Tottenham (5) – Liverpool (H), Leeds (H)

Chelsea (6) – Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A)

Fulham (9) – Man City (A), Man Utd (H)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession

1. ( - ) Manchester City: Attack Rating 4.24 (1), Defensive Rating 2.53 (7), Net Rating 1.71 (2), Possession 65.55% (1), Pace 2.81 (4)

Man City entered game week 11 off the back of their only loss of the league season looking to restart their march for the top spot of the table. With their game against Arsenal postponed, they got some extended rest before hosting Brighton in game week 12 and then visiting Leicester in game week 13. City were able to pick up all 6 points, led by 2 virtuoso performances from Kevin De Bruyne. A foot injury to Erling Haaland was met with budding curiosity from other contenders, as an absent Haaland represents some hope to slow down Pep Guardiola’s machine. An argument could be made that the team struggled without the Norwegian against Leicester, where their number 1 rated attack was held to 0 (zero) Big Chances, but that only allowed the quality of KDB to shine even brighter.

If watching City play does not convince someone of their dominance, some numbers should. They have the number 1 rated attack (efficiency of scoring goals, and creating Big Chances during time in possession) while averaging the highest % of possession. In their time in possession, they have played the most passes in the league (attempted ~1000 more passes than 2nd placed Liverpool) with a 90% pass accuracy (1st in the league). They have created the most Big Chances in the league (creating the most Big Chances per game) and have the 3rd highest conversion of Big Chances. They allow the 2nd fewest Big Chances per game and have conceded the 2nd fewest goals.

City’s final 2 league games before the world cup are home games against mid table teams that are low rated defences. With the current leaders having to go away to Chelsea, there is the real chance that City go into the world cup top of the table. After that, in a race to the trophy of Pep’s men vs “the field”, it would be unadvisable to back “the field”.

2. ( - ) Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.78 (2), Defensive Rating 2.06 (4), Net Rating 1.71 (1), Possession 58.14% (4), Pace 2.61 (7)

Continuing their stunning start to the season and holding onto the top spot in the table, Arsenal. The Gunners have collected 31 points of a possible 36 in the first 12 games of the season. The only team to not win the premier league after a similar start are the infamous Newcastle side in 1995/96. In most others seasons, Arsenal would be clear favourites to reclaim the trophy next spring, but the existence of Manchester City represents a challenge that renders such historic stats effectively meaningless. No history or matching historic feats can protect this young Arsenal team from the ruthlessness of Pep’s team that have their eyes set on the same goal.

Arsenal gave up ground to their competition by dropping points in a substandard performance in their trip to the Saint Mary’s Stadium in the south coast. The team clearly have the quality at the top to compete at the highest level, but the consistency and ability to grind out performances, along with the depth of the team, will continue to be the issue areas that justify any doubts against this team. The packed October schedule, closed by a tough Europa League test away at PSV and an injury scare to star-boy Bukayo Saka brought some of those issues to a head. Following negative results against Southampton and PSV, the team needed a statement performance to steady the ship. Even with Saka side-lined, the Gunners delivered an emphatic 5 – 0 victory over bottom dwelling Nottingham Forest to lift their spirits as they approach the final games before the world cup.

The importance of 21-year-old Bukayo Saka to Arsenal and England cannot be understated. The image of him sat on the pitch after a “bad kick” in the Nottingham Forest game will have sent shivers down the spine of Arsenal fans as they look to an away London Derby against Chelsea in game week 14, and Gareth Southgate, as an important piece of his World Cup squad became questionable.

Arsenal go away to Chelsea and then Wolves before the international break. To maintain top spot in the table, they probably need to pick up maximum points in the 2 games against teams that are currently struggling to find form.

3. (↑4) Newcastle: Attack Rating 3.1 (5), Defensive Rating 1.58 (1), Net Rating 1.52 (3), Possession 51.68% (8), Pace 2.73 (5)

Storming into 3rd in these rankings and into 4th in the table (a Champions League spot) is Newcastle. After dropping points in unfortunate fashion in the earlier part of the season, the Tyneside club have seemingly fully got going.

Since Manchester United’s loss to Brighton in the opening week of the season, no team had won away at a “top 6” club. In game week 12, Newcastle left the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with the 3 points as they cemented themselves as this season’s top 6 usurper. Over the last 3 games, the Magpies have been comfortably the best team in the league. They have scored the most goals and conceded the fewest (which translates to the 2nd highest rated attack and 3rd highest rated defence), while creating the 3rd most Big Chances and allowing the 2nd fewest. They picked up the maximum 9 points from 9 and are the in-form team.

Injuries to Allan Saint-Maximin and Alexander Isak looked likely to derail any momentum of Eddie Howe’s team, but complete performances across the board have propelled the side on this amazing run. At the moment, Newcastle cannot be spoken about without mention of Miguel Almirón. The Paraguayan has been talismanic. In a crowded field, he has arguably been the best player in his position so far this season.

They close their pre-World Cup league fixtures with a game away at Southampton (~600 mile round trip) and at home to Chelsea. Though both games present serious challenges, for different reasons, as the league’s in-form team, it seems unlikely that either game causes any major problems to Eddie Howe and his men. The extra rest afforded to his players, due to their lack of European football, appears to only be working in his favour. As fixture congestion ramps up again in the new year, Newcastle look perfectly placed to push for a top-4 spot come next spring.

4. (↑1) Manchester United: Attack Rating 2.41 (10), Defensive Rating 2.81 (9), Net Rating -0.4 (9), Possession 51.96% (7), Pace 2.69 (6)

Rounding out the top 4 of the rankings are Manchester United. The Reds hosted title contenders Tottenham in game week 11. The manner in which Erik Ten Hag’s team beat Tottenham explain why they are ranked higher than the North London club. Outside of the rumblings caused by Cristiano Ronaldo, Man United are clearly settling into the style and system that Erik Ten Hag is trying to employ. The steady progression, dogged pressing and sustained intensity are noticeable themes developing with the entire squad. While the team is evidently not the finished article, the visible improvements should provide fans with plenty of confidence that the team is heading in the right direction.

The steady improvement is reflected statistically. They are now top 10 in both attack and defensive rating. Over the last 3 games, Man United have managed the 2nd highest rated defence following games against Tottenham, Chelsea and West Ham. Of the London trio, only Chelsea were able to breach the United defence (from a poorly conceded penalty in the 87th minute), but even then, Ten Hag’s men showed the character of contenders when they replied with a dramatic equaliser in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. The improvement in the United defence alongside the presence of Lisandro Martínez are not coincidence. The ability of the Argentine, largely centred on his physique, was questioned early in the season. Thus far, not only have those questions have been answered, but those that asked the questions are not being questioned. The 5’9” defender is showing that he is suited perfectly for Ten Hag’s system and for the style of the play in the premier league.

A negative from their previous 3 games would be the efficiency in front of goal. Big Chance conversion amongst the elite teams will be what separates the best from the rest. From game week 11 – 13, the Reds were 18th in Big Chance conversion and are 9th for the season.

United face away days at Aston Villa and Fulham as their final 2 league games, but also have a formidable challenge away to Real Sociedad for top spot in their Europa League group. Top 4 or a trophy is probably the benchmark for success for Ten Hag this season, meaning the Carabao Cup tie against Aston Villa will also require a strong United side. With Varane going down for injury, the conditioning of the United players will be an important factor for their final 4 fixtures.

5. (↓2) Tottenham: Attack Rating 3.39 (3), Defensive Rating 2.62 (8), Net Rating 0.77 (4), Possession 50.26% (11), Pace 2.21 (11)

Though Spurs still sit in 3rd place in the league table, losses to both Manchester United and Newcastle in the last 3 game weeks sees them drop below both those teams in the rankings. The approach employed by Antonio Conte has continued to come under scrutiny from fan and rival alike. While the tactics can be described as “anti-football” or “scared football”, Tottenham are the 3rd highest rated attack and allow the fewest Big Chances of any team in the league. Objectively, that represents a very effective form of football.

The approach did not work in the last 3 games, as Tottenham had the lowest rated defence across the 3 games, and only managed to steal the 3 points from Bournemouth, in game week 13, after coming back from 2 goals down.

Though a bad look on paper, the Bournemouth game offers an alternative way to characterize Conte’s methods. Opposed to being “fearful”, the relatively passive approach against most teams may stem from a level of arrogance. With the quality Tottenham can deploy in attacking areas, and the defensive setup, Conte’s men dare opponents to try and score, as they hold almost unreasonable confidence in their ability to simply score more. Against Bournemouth (14th in the league, 14th rated attack and 14th rated defence) and most other teams, Spurs can get away with that. Against better opposition (Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester United), it has not worked.

A major positive to the approach is the role of Harry Kane. The England captain would be wrapped in cotton wool if Gareth Southgate could demand it. The best he could expect is minimising the risk of any injury. In Conte’s system, Harry Kane is demanded to do exactly what he is best at, and not too much more. He is asked to link/dictate play from midfield and to score goals. Arguably, there is no one in the league doing this (in combination) more effectively.

Of the current top 4 teams, Tottenham have not shown their title credentials when it comes to competing with other top quality competition. They have the opportunity to quiet some critics in their upcoming fixtures. They host a labouring Liverpool side in game week 14 then Jesse Marsch’s Leeds in game week 15. Though both teams are out of form, they have shown enough evidence this season to not be underestimated.

6. (↓2) Chelsea: Attack Rating 2.13 (12), Defensive Rating 3.22 (13), Net Rating -1.09 (12), Possession 60.13% (3), Pace 1.71 (16)

Dropping 2 places to 6th are Graham Potter’s Chelsea. The honeymoon period may be well and truly over for the ex-Brighton head coach. Though results have been good in Europe, some questionable starting line-ups and the injury to Reece James have put Chelsea on the wrong end of some poor results. While experimenting with the best system to implement “Quidditch ball”, the Blues have found themselves being run over in midfield and extremely vulnerable at the back.

The theme for Chelsea over the last 3 game weeks has been Graham Potter setting up his team seemingly incorrectly. Early changes in the Brentford and Man United game appeared to prove that Potter had accepted his mistake. A renewed line-up was deployed against Brighton, but Potter’s men were then “confunded” by his former team in a humiliating 4 – 1 defeat.

The team have fallen back into their early season difficulties of lack of identity. They do not seem to know or trust where attacking opportunities are coming from, and even though they manage to dominate possession, they are unable to create Big Chances at a reliable rate. In the past 3 game weeks, the Blues are 3rd in average possession but are 18th in pace (Big Chances created per time in possession) and 18th in attack rating. The loss of Reece James to injury and the consequent loss in identity go hand in hand. The talented international wing back has become a sort of talismanic playmaker for this Chelsea team, akin to the role Trent has become famous for excelling at in the successful Liverpool teams.

Given the struggles of the Blues, the next 2 games may have come at an inopportune time. They face top-of-the-league Arsenal in game week 14 at Stamford Bridge then go to St James’ Park to play in-form Newcastle in their last league game before the World Cup. Chelsea are currently undefeated at Stamford Bridge this season, which bodes well for Graham Potter against Arsenal. Since 2017/18, Newcastle and Chelsea have played 10 league games and Chelsea have come out on top on 8 times.

7. (↑2) Brighton: Attack Rating 2.44 (9), Defensive Rating 2.42 (6), Net Rating 0.02 (5), Possession 53.33% (5), Pace 2.9 (2)

Rising the rankings after a superb victory over Chelsea is Brighton. Since joining Brighton, Roberto De Zerbi has now played 6 games including 4 games against “traditional top 6” teams. His initiation has been unforgiving. Fortunately, the Italian has been gifted with a clearly talented and well-drilled Brighton team following Graham Potter’s departure. In the 6 games, De Zerbi and Brighton have drawn 2 games, but his introduction to the league has been highlighted by the emphatic 4 – 1 win over Chelsea in game week 13.

Leandro Trossard continues to impress as he looks to secure a place in the Belgian side for the World Cup. Before the break, De Zerbi finally gets some “easy” games as the Seagulls travel to Wolves before playing against Aston Villa at home. The south coast side seem firmly placed to finish at least mid-table. A strong run of results for them, together with more bad results for Liverpool and Chelsea, could see the Seagulls aiming to land their first ever appearance in European competition.

8. (↓2) Liverpool: Attack Rating 2.62 (7), Defensive Rating 3.86 (19), Net Rating -1.24 (14), Possession 63.11% (2), Pace 2.82 (3)

Falling further in the rankings after more chaotic results is Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool. The season did not start well for Klopp’s team, but over the last 3 games, they have performed potentially the worst in his tenure. They find themselves in very bad company. The only teams that have had worse results over the last 3 game weeks are Wolves (2Ls, 1D) and Bournemouth (3Ls). Over the 3 games, they allowed the joint most Big Chances and held the 3rd worst defensive rating. Absurdly, Liverpool also created the joint most Big Chances, but had the 2nd worst Big Chance conversion rate. This shocking run of from was underlined by defeats to the worst team in the league (Nottingham Forest) and then to a toiling Leeds team. The team’s defensive rating is now 19th in the league and must be a huge concern for Jürgen Klopp. Teams have made it a point of emphasis to attack the right flank of Liverpool, whether Trent is there or not, and it has not been subtle. Nottingham Forest created ~25% of all their Big Chances in the 90 minutes against Liverpool. Potentially more worrying is the effectiveness of Mo Salah and new signing, Darwin Núñez in front of goal. Though Liverpool have created the 2nd most Big Chances in the league, they are 2nd worst in Big Chance conversion rate.

What has caused this sharp decline in form is a mystery, and how and when their form will return to the expected is equally unknown. Every game has become a huge test for the Reds as the confidence in the league has effectively disappeared. They travel to North London to face Tottenham in game week 14 where a loss could leave last year’s runner up more than 10 points off a Champions League spot. Their final league game before the World Cup is against Southampton, at Anfield. History favours Liverpool here, as in the last 12 league meetings between the 2 sides, Liverpool have won 9 times and only lost once.

9. (↑4) Fulham: Attack Rating 2.97 (6), Defensive Rating 3.48 (15), Net Rating -0.51 (11), Possession 46.25% (13), Pace 2.32 (9)

After a run of strong performances and positive results, Fulham have regained their early season form. As a newly promoted side, the measurement of success can be a blunt as avoiding relegation. Marco Silva and Aleksandar Mitrović have outwardly set their sights on far more ambitious targets. Fulham currently sit 7th in the table and are proving to be a formidable task for any opponent.

In the last 3 games, Fulham have been one of the best teams in the league. They created the most Big Chances across the 3 games (tied with Liverpool) and scored the 2nd most goals. However, the quality of opposition is an important caveat. Fulham were able to score a combined 6 goals in the 2 games against Aston Villa and Leeds. The strategy from Marco Silva continues to allow a lot of Big Chances for the opposition. Aston Villa, Leeds and Everton (2 bottom-5 rated attacks, and Leeds, 11th rated attack) were not able to punish this. For the season, Fulham now have allowed the most Big Chances in the league and are surely playing with fire. More clinical opposition will exploit the system and Fulham will concede more goals than they can score.

Fulham close the pre-World Cup fixtures with games against both Manchester clubs. They go away to Manchester City for the ultimate test of Silva’s plans versus the leagues most potent attack, then prepare for Manchester United to play at Craven Cottage. There is no evidence to suggest the Lily Whites will approach either game any differently to any other game. And with Mitrović as an option up front, it is likely that both games could include some fireworks.

10. (↑1) Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 1.88 (13), Defensive Rating 2.38 (5), Net Rating -0.5 (10), Possession 45.38% (14), Pace 2.06 (12)

Completing this version’s top 10 are Crystal Palace. The Seagulls have enjoyed an encouraging month of October. In the 6 games played, Vieira’s side managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. Sustaining that form would leave Crystal Palace mid-table – maybe better.

In game weeks 11 – 13, the Eagles faced 2 of the bottom ranked teams in Wolves and Southampton. Vieira’s men took care of business in these games and have claimed the 10th spot in the premier league table. The story was not as pleasant in game week 12 where Palace were held goalless at Goodison Park and on the wrong end of a 3 – 0 rout. Though creating the joint fewest Big Chances in the 3 games, Crystal Palace led the league with a perfect conversion rate (100%).

The proficiency in front of goal is currently a theme for the South London side. They have the 2nd highest Big Chance conversion rate and will hope this sustains for the course of the season.

The next 2 league games for Crystal Palace are a London Derby at the London Stadium then away to bottom placed Nottingham Forest. The Palace fans have been in good spirits as they ride their side’s good form under Patrick Vieira and the upcoming games offer great opportunities for them build additional momentum before they break for the World Cup.

The rest…

11. (↑1) Everton: Attack Rating 1.49 (18), Defensive Rating 1.73 (2), Net Rating -0.25 (6), Possession 42.88% (18), Pace 1.99 (13)

12. (↓2) West Ham: Attack Rating 1.49 (17), Defensive Rating 1.78 (3), Net Rating -0.29 (8), Possession 45.24% (15), Pace 1.94 (14)

13. (↓5) Brentford: Attack Rating 3.31 (4), Defensive Rating 3.57 (16), Net Rating -0.26 (7), Possession 45.24% (16), Pace 3.45 (1)

14. (↑5) Leicester: Attack Rating 2.48 (8), Defensive Rating 4.07 (20), Net Rating -1.6 (18), Possession 50.88% (9), Pace 1.43 (18)

15. ( - ) Leeds: Attack Rating 2.32 (11), Defensive Rating 3.72 (17), Net Rating -1.4 (15), Possession 50.72% (10), Pace 2.44 (8)

16. (↑2) Aston Villa: Attack Rating 1.5 (16), Defensive Rating 3.09 (12), Net Rating -1.59 (17), Possession 48.78% (12), Pace 1.7 (17)

17. ( - ) Southampton: Attack Rating 1.68 (15), Defensive Rating 2.88 (11), Net Rating -1.2 (13), Possession 43.92% (17), Pace 1.82 (15)

18. (↓4) Bournemouth: Attack Rating 1.85 (14), Defensive Rating 3.36 (14), Net Rating -1.51 (16), Possession 38.09% (20), Pace 1.31 (19)

19. (↓3) Wolves: Attack Rating 0.82 (20), Defensive Rating 2.86 (10), Net Rating -2.04 (19), Possession 51.99% (6), Pace 1.2 (20)

20. ( - ) Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.22 (19), Defensive Rating 3.78 (18), Net Rating -2.57 (20), Possession 40.18% (19), Pace 2.26 (10)