*Note from the author: the premier league table is as clear an indicator of a team’s success during the season as any other metric. My issue lies in the lack of nuance or objectivity (or subjectivity – which is part of the essence of football) in the table as a ranking of any team’s ability or authority in the league. The reasoning for developing these rankings is as an attempt to address that. Until a team’s final position is mathematically secured, these rankings simply represent my (just 1 single person’s) opinion on each teams ranking as some combination of table position, expected finishing position and difficulty as opposition (i.e. Man City ranked 1 means I think they are still the most difficult team to get a result against and are my pick to take the trophy, even though Arsenal currently sit top of the Premier League).
Over the next 3 game weeks the 2022/23 Premier League season will have completed more than half of the fixtures and every team will have played everyone else at least once. Any post World Cup blues have been left behind, domestic cup competitions are in full motion and the business end of the season is setting up some of the most dramatic story lines in modern memory.
Arsenal are currently on pace to secure their first league title for 19 years
Newcastle look set to qualify for European football for the first time since the 2012/13 Europa League and are aiming for their first trophy (Carabao Cup) since their 2006 UEFA Intertoto Cup triumph.
In-form Manchester United are the only team left with hopes of a quadruple
Only 5 points currently separate the bottom 8 teams, with Everton (one of the 6 teams to have been ever-present in the Premier League) sitting in 18th and clearly in the firing line for relegation.
During the previous 3 games, Manchester United have seen a renaissance and are accompanied by Fulham as the only teams to hold a 100% winning record. At the bottom end of the league, Leicester, Bournemouth and Southampton were the 3 teams that dropped all 9 points. Game weeks 19 – 21 features some of the most tantalising fixtures of the EPL calendar and will have huge ramifications for the fate of a number of teams – at both sides of the table. It cannot be understated that the league is not won in January, and neither are relegations decided in the opening month of the calendar year. However, the upcoming games are very significant.
Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham each have at least 2 matches against top 6 opposition. Newcastle and Liverpool have “easier” fixtures and they will be expecting to gain valuable ground on the teams around them.
For every huge game at the top of the table, there is an equally impactful game in the relegation battle. Come game week 22, the title contenders, however many there are, will have separated from the pretenders, and at least 1 team will likely become the out and out relegation favourite.
Teams to watch through game weeks 19 – 21
Manchester City (1) – Manchester United (A), Tottenham (H), Wolves (H), Tottenham (A)
Arsenal (2) – Tottenham (A), Manchester United (H), Everton (A)
Manchester United (3) – Manchester City (H), Crystal Palace (A), Arsenal (A), Crystal Palace (H)
Newcastle (4) – Fulham (H), Crystal Palace (A), West Ham (H)
Liverpool (5) – Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Wolves (A)
Tottenham (6) – Arsenal (H), Manchester City (A), Fulham (A), Manchester City (H)
Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession
Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession
Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating
Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession
1. ( – ) Manchester City: Attack Rating 3.62 (3), Defensive Rating 2.96 (10), Net Rating 0.67 (3), Possession 66.29% (1), Pace 2.82 (5)
After losing to Brentford before the International break, then dropping points at home to struggling Everton in game week 17, City’s hopes of retaining the Premier League looked in danger if Arsenal were able to capitalise against Newcastle. Fortunately for City, there was no winner at the Emirates so the Blues watched both teams drop 2 points and their gap to leaders Arsenal remained 5 points.
Pep Guardiola’s team remain in top spot of these rankings as entering a gruelling schedule, their quality in depth, far clear of the rest, only becomes more valuable. The depth was on show in the FA cup as Pep was able to rest his key players and watch his team comfortably get by a demoralised Chelsea team and walk into the next round.
Manchester City are still the favourites to win the league this season, but they are starting to show weaknesses. Now the 3rd highest rated attack, and scoring goals at a slower rate, it appears that reliance on Erling Haaland may not be all it takes to run away with the title. Nonetheless, the team are still performing at an elite level and are the benchmark. Since the league restart, City have created the most Big Chances and have held their opponents to the fewest. Over the course of the season, they have faced the fewest shots (on target) on their goal and are joint second to Liverpool in shots on target. The only real question for City is can they keep this up. If yes, no team, even a high-flying Arsenal will be able to maintain the consistency required to thwart Pep.
The upcoming fixtures do offer a test to City’s resolve. The Old Trafford leg of the Manchester Derby looks set to be a much more competitive game than the reverse leg and 2 games against a troublesome Tottenham team could begin to derail the City journey to a 3-peat.
2. ( – ) Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.83 (1), Defensive Rating 1.77 (2), Net Rating 2.06 (1), Possession 57.74% (4), Pace 2.74 (6)
Continuing their strong form following the World Cup and still sitting top of the league are Arsenal. The Gunners had a real opportunity to take a big step towards the league trophy (even at this early stage) in game week 18. Newcastle (the number 1 rated defence) visited the Emirates in a game that could have left the young Gunners 7 points clear at the summit. In a frustrating game for the hosts, the best defence in the league did the job it set out to do and held Arsenal to no Big Chances and left with a clean sheet and the point they wanted.
Arteta’s men are still second in these rankings as the lack of depth, especially in comparison to their direct competition, leaves a lot to be desired. The Gunners look primed to add some much needed fire power in the January transfer window and Gabriel Jesus appears to be on track for a quick recovery and possible return in February. In the meantime, Eddie Nketiah has confidently stepped into the space and the front of the number 1 rated attack scoring 4 in his last 4 appearances (including an FA cup tie). Even with the relatively poor attacking performance against Newcastle, Arsenal have seen their pace increase and they are 1 of the 2 teams to have a top 5 attack and defence. The lack of depth and the fixture congestion point to an inevitable dip in league form at some point. Conversely, if no major dip occurs, the Gunners are very well placed to go into to final part of the season with title aspirations intact.
The fixtures between now and the return of Gabriel Jesus and the restart of European football may turn this season on its head for Mikel Arteta. 2 huge fixtures come back-to-back in the next 2 game weeks – the away leg of the North London Derby and the rematch against Manchester United (the team’s only league loss so far) at the Emirates. Game week 21 sees a different test as they go to Goodison Park to play an Everton team that will have their backs against the wall.
3. (↑1) Manchester United: Attack Rating 2.5 (9), Defensive Rating 2.52 (4), Net Rating -0.02 (6), Possession 53.39% (6), Pace 2.95 (4)
Rising into the top 3 and riding a joint, league-leading 4-game win streak are the Red Devils.
In the 3 games since the league return, Manchester United have the best defensive rating in the league (with Newcastle) and have not conceded a goal. Led by a rejuvenated and determined Marcus Rashford, United have also scored the second most goals since the return and have settled into the top 4 with quiet rumblings of a second-half-of-the-season title charge. If Ten Hag and Rashford have given United an outsider’s chance of the title, the next set a games could see them become clear-cut title contenders.
Over the last few games, Ten Hag has reintegrated Martial into the fold and has experimented with centre back partnerships with Varane. The outcome of these changes have been a net gain to the team with Luke Shaw back to playing some of his best football. This Manchester United “come-up” has been an homage to some of the United teams of the past as the spine of the team is currently made up of some of the best players in the world in their positions, underlined by the quality of Varane, Casemiro, Fernandes and the in-form Rashford. Quality in depth is also a question for Ten Hag and his current squad. Injuries to Dalot and Martial means more experimenting will be anticipated in the next fixtures. The addition of Wout Weghorst gives Ten Hag some much-needed options for his front line following the loss of Ronaldo and the frequently unavailable Martial.
The timing of the next fixtures might be perfect for Ten Hag. Man United go into the Manchester Derby at Old Trafford with a 4-game winning streak and confidence that comes with an active quadruple. They face Manchester City on the back of a surprising loss to Southampton in the quarter final of the Carabao Cup and then go to Arsenal after their North London Derby. The fixtures do come with an additional challenge as their rearranged game against Crystal Palace has been scheduled between matches against the current top 2.
4. (↓1) Newcastle: Attack Rating 3 (5), Defensive Rating 1.26 (1), Net Rating 1.74 (2), Possession 49.87% (10), Pace 3.05 (3)
Dropping out of the top 3 in the rankings is Newcastle. With Arsenal, Newcastle are the one of the 2 teams to be rated top 5 in both attack and defence. The number 1 defence came up against one of its biggest tests of the season going away to the number 1 rated attack in the league. In the encounter of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object went in the direction of the immovable option. Eddie Howe’s men held Arsenal to 0 Big Chances and were the first team this season to leave the Emirates with anything. With 2 points between 3rd and 5th place in the table, 1 point gained at the Emirates is huge, but 2 draws in a row (a draw at home against Leeds) is 4 quick points dropped. With Manchester United racking up wins and Tottenham aim for the Champions League spots, Newcastle are in both their crosshairs.
In the last 3 games, the Magpies have maintained a perfect defensive record and kept their rating as the number 1 defence, but in those 3 games, Newcastle have the 18th rated attack and having struggled to score goals. The team have created the 3rd most Big Chances but have the 16th Big Chance conversion rate. It is not time to panic for Newcastle as strong offensive options are returning from injury to pick up the goal scoring slack.
With Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham all playing each other over the next few games, the Magpies must be looking at their approaching fixtures with gentle optimism. They play Fulham and West Ham at St James’s Park with a trip to Crystal Palace in between. Their number 1 rated defence will likely keep them intact as West Ham and Crystal Palace are bottom-6 rated attacks. If the Newcastle striker are able to get firing, a 9 point haul looks a very likely outcome.
5. (↑1) Liverpool: Attack Rating 2.87 (6), Defensive Rating 4.02 (19), Net Rating -1.15 (13), Possession 61.89% (2), Pace 3.14 (2)
Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool continue to be a real mystery in the landscape of this Premier League season. On one hand, the team have real threats and can clearly beat anyone on their day and are able to go on title contending winning streaks, On the other hand, they give up so many opportunities to their opposition and are a risk to be comfortably run through in any given match,
Klopp’s men were able to put a hugely disappointing home loss to Leeds behind them and build a 4-game winning streak (including a tough fought win away at Tottenham) before being handily dispatched by Brentford – without Ivan Toney.
Shockingly, at present, Liverpool have the 2nd worst defensive rating in the league. Since the break, only Brighton have had a worse defensive rating and for the season, they are second worst to only Leeds. In terms of Big Chances, in the games since the World Cup, Liverpool have created the most Big Chances in the league (joint with Manchester City) with the 3rd worst Big Chance conversion, and have allowed the 2nd most Big Chances. The picture does not get better if the sample is the season so far. The Reds have created the 2nd most Big Chances and have the worst Big Chance conversion in the league. Additionally, they have allowed the 3rd most Big Chances. Inevitably compounding these issues are the injury woes that have haunted Klopp all season and are not subsiding as now Darwin Nunez may be set for time on the side-lines.
Nonetheless, they are winning games and are in position to challenge for the top 4 spots. Similar to Newcastle, Liverpool have the luxury of knowing the teams around and above them will be dropping points. The Pool go away to direct table rivals Brighton in their next game before favourable fixtures against Chelsea and Wolves.
6. (↓1) Tottenham: Attack Rating 3.49 (4), Defensive Rating 3 (11), Net Rating 0.49 (5), Possession 51.54% (7), Pace 2.34 (8)
The early season optimism at White Hart Lane has fallen drastically and the fans are beginning to lose faith. A quiet January window is doing nothing to calm the nerves of the North London side and the tough set of fixtures could be the catalyst of huge change at White Hart Lane. The poor results since the World cup and any growing prospect of another season without silverware will inevitably be compared to any relative success of their North London rivals. It does not need any further fuel, but this backdrop looks to create an even more fiery atmosphere to the North London Derby in game week 19.
The last 3 games have been tough watching for Spurs fans, as the team have continued the trend of slow starts and going behind in games or waiting for the second half to start trying. A disappointing draw against Brentford and a home loss against Aston Villa meant Conte’s men had to win in Selhurst Park to keep their title and top 4 hope alive. As usual, Conte’s men were second best in the 1st half but showed real quality in the 2nd half, scoring 4 goals and heading into the North London Derby on the back of a somewhat comfortable league win and a 3rd round FA cup win.
Considering the upcoming 3 game weeks is most likely the toughest stretch of Premier League fixtures for Conte and Spurs, every boost, tangible or otherwise, will be necessary for them to make it through these fixtures in good stead. The Spurs host the current number 1 rated attack, their North London rivals in game week 19, and have to face the holders, the toughest team in the league, twice over the next 2 game weeks. To add strain to the fixtures, Tottenham have an away league game against the dangerous Fulham team and an away 4th round FA cup tie.
7. ( – ) Brighton: Attack Rating 2.69 (8), Defensive Rating 3.39 (16), Net Rating -0.7 (8), Possession 56.57% (5), Pace 2.62 (7)
Sitting in 7th in the table, having won 3 of the last 5, is Brighton.
Roberto De Zerbi has taken the Graham Potter Brighton and added even more grit and energy. Since the restart, the Eagles have the 3rd highest rated attack and have scored the most goals in the league (9). Other than a visit from the league leaders, Brighton have made light work of all their opposition since coming back from the World Cup. The Eagles are making a firm statement that they are the best team outside the current top 6. They have close competition from Fulham for that title, but also have an exceptional opportunity to break into the top 6 and claim a European spot for the first time in their history.
In game week 19, Brighton host a lacklustre Liverpool side with the chance to overtake them in the race for European football. They then go away to Leicester followed by a South Coast contest against Bournemouth. Brighton and their 3 upcoming opponents are 4 of the 5 bottom rated defences in the league meaning their next 3 fixtures could be one of the highest scoring stretches for any team this season.
8. (↑2) Fulham: Attack Rating 2.79 (7), Defensive Rating 3.17 (13), Net Rating -0.38 (7), Possession 47.14% (13), Pace 2.28 (9)
Sneaking up the league table and the rankings are Fulham. The newly promoted side have taken a step from a “surprise” team to solid mid-table at least. With to Brighton, Chelsea and Brentford, Fulham are right there competing for the title of best team outside the top 6. Their West London rival, Chelsea would expect to be rewarded that position as a formality even during their poor form, but the Lily Whites show no sign of giving them that luxury.
A theme of Fulham’s style has been to concede possession and opportunities to their opposition in an attempt to take advantage of any space or opportunities surrendered. Going into the 4 fixtures in 3 game weeks, Fulham are allowing the most Big Chances per game in the league, but are surviving on the 3rd highest Big Chance conversion rate.
The next set of fixtures represent one of the tougher stretches For Silva’s team. The team start the period hosting the West London Derby then have games against Newcastle and Tottenham before going to Chelsea for the return West London Derby fixture.
9. (↓1) Chelsea: Attack Rating 1.75 (14), Defensive Rating 2.88 (8), Net Rating -1.13 (12), Possession 58.65% (3), Pace 1.4 (19)
Continuing to fall in these rankings are looking at a difficult second half to the season is Graham Potter and Chelsea.
New ownership and a change in management meant the Blues were inevitably heading into a period of transition. A brutal injury list and underperforming players has led to a far deeper dip than Chelsea would have been expecting. As is the norm at Stamford Bridge, even with a new face at the helm, the pressure is mounting on Graham Potter. The team find themselves out of both domestic competitions, unlikely to dominate the Champion League and 19 points of the top of the Premier League. Not making top 4 may not be the end for Potter, but as the team drop further down the table, even the most loyal fan will start to turn on him.
The loss of Reece-James has again left the Chelsea attack toothless and lost for ideas. Potter’s team are creating Big Chances at the 2nd slowest rate in the league and find themselves with an alarmingly low goal difference for one of the league’s superpowers.
Tedd Boehly seems hell bent on providing the necessary fire power to rescue the season, being willing to meet wild valuations and demands in a heavily inflated winter transfer market illustrated by the loan agreement for João Félix. The Portuguese international will be expected to provide a much-needed spark to the Chelsea offense and will be looking to impress following a tumultuous part-time exit from Atlético de Madrid.
The Blues go across the road to their West London rivals then host Crystal Palace in game week 19. They then travel to Anfield for a traditional top 6 clash before returning for the second leg of the West London Derby at Stamford Bridge – where the atmosphere could be close to hostile for Potter dependent on the previous results.
10. (↑1) Brentford: Attack Rating 3.78 (2), Defensive Rating 3.14 (12), Net Rating 0.64 (4), Possession 42.76% (18), Pace 4.13 (1)
Rounding out the top ten and enjoying another positive season in the top flight are he Bees. Even with the situation surrounding the Brentford star man, Thomas Frank’s men show no sign of slowing down.
Since returning from the international break, the Bees have the number 1 rated attack and are continuing to play at the fastest pace.
Even playing with the 3rd lowest average possession, Brentford have managed to create the 3rd most Big Chances in the league. Since their arrival to the top flight, beating Arsenal at home in their debut, the Bees have seemingly made it their target to be the main antagonist to the traditional top 6. Hosting both Liverpool and Tottenham in the previous 3 game weeks, the Bees managed to take 4 points from those games as well as taking 3 points from West Ham to find themselves just 2 points away from a European spot. With Ivan Toney likely to return to the setup, Thomas Frank and his 2nd rated attack will be viewing the upcoming fixtures with a real sense of confidence. The next 3 game weeks sees the Bees play against 3 bottom-6 defences, each facing the real possibility of relegation.
Brentford start the fixtures with a visit from Bournemouth, followed by an away trip to Leeds and then a visit from Southampton. Taking close to maximum points from these games would put Brentford in the sort of comfortable table position that may have even exceeded the expectations of the Gtech Community Stadium’s most faithful.
The rest…
11. (↑1) Aston Villa: Attack Rating 2.05 (12), Defensive Rating 2.9 (9), Net Rating -0.84 (9), Possession 47.54% (12), Pace 1.81 (13)
12. (↓3) Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 1.7 (15), Defensive Rating 2.74 (6), Net Rating -1.04 (11), Possession 46.79% (14), Pace 1.71 (15)
13. (↑2) Leeds: Attack Rating 2.46 (10), Defensive Rating 4.22 (20), Net Rating -1.76 (20), Possession 49.99% (9), Pace 2.15 (10)
14. (↑4) Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.46 (18), Defensive Rating 3.21 (14), Net Rating -1.75 (19), Possession 38.93% (20), Pace 2.07 (11)
15. (↓2) Leicester: Attack Rating 2.33 (11), Defensive Rating 3.51 (18), Net Rating -1.18 (14), Possession 51.32% (8), Pace 1.69 (16)
16. ( – ) West Ham: Attack Rating 1.51 (17), Defensive Rating 2.38 (3), Net Rating -0.87 (10), Possession 45.41% (15), Pace 1.57 (17)
17. (↓3) Everton: Attack Rating 1.34 (19), Defensive Rating 2.62 (5), Net Rating -1.28 (15), Possession 44.67% (16), Pace 1.77 (14)
18. (↓1) Bournemouth: Attack Rating 2.01 (13), Defensive Rating 3.49 (17), Net Rating -1.49 (16), Possession 39.46% (19), Pace 1.55 (18)
19. ( – ) Southampton: Attack Rating 1.69 (16), Defensive Rating 3.33 (15), Net Rating -1.65 (17), Possession 44.42% (17), Pace 1.95 (12)
20. ( – ) Wolves: Attack Rating 1.05 (20), Defensive Rating 2.76 (7), Net Rating -1.7 (18), Possession 48.49% (11), Pace 1.28 (20)
Comentarios