Premier League Season Rankings: Game week 8 – 10

The 2022/2023 premier league fixture list was already a key player in this season’s outcome due to the inclusion of the winter break for the world cup this winter. The passing of HMQ and the consequent period of mourning has added an unexpected layer of disruption to each Premier League team. Every fixture from the original game week 7 has been postponed and further ripple effects has led to the postponement of the Arsenal v Manchester City game (due to the rescheduling of a home Europa League game for Arsenal). Whilst the rearrangement to fixtures allowed extra rest to key players in the run up to some difficult fixtures (e.g., Thomas Partey for Arsenal will have only missed the game at Old Trafford, Thiago for Liverpool will likely be available for both rearranged games), 2 Manchester City games against their main competitors (at least currently) need to be played at some point and will likely have major implications on who is lifting the Premier League trophy in spring/summer 2023.

At this point in the season, records have already been matched/broken (Liverpool 9 – 0 Bournemouth equals most unanswered goals in a game and Arsenal’s youngest ever EPL debutant, Ethan Nwaneri at 15 years 181 days) and dramatic storylines are already being established at both ends of the league.

After the next 3 games, the league will be at the quarter mark of the EPL fixtures, on the back end of some of the biggest fixtures of the season (game week 6 seeing the Merseyside Derby and Arsenal hosted at Old Trafford. Now in game week 8, the EPL brings the Arsenal leg of the North London Derby and the City side of the Manchester Derby), and things will have taken real shape.

We will be a step closer to answering some of the important questions associated with this Premier League season:

- Will Man City have separated from the pack and be looking to walk the league led by the new sheriff in town, Erling Haaland?

- Do “new mentality” Tottenham and Arsenal (and the revived Man United?) pose any real threat?

- Will Liverpool and Chelsea (after a shock change in management) regain form and push up the table?

- Could Everton and Brighton, surprisingly claiming the number 1 and 2 rated defences respectively, upset some of the top teams in the coming weeks and force a push for European football?

- How long can the number 1 rated attack of Brentford maintain their form?

- How much improvement should be expected from the Saudi-funded giant in Tyneside?

- And who is destined for the drop?

After the last international break before the world cup, the coming fixtures begin an October schedule which sees teams competing in Europe needing to navigate 9 games across the month. Squad depth and player management rise to the near top of teams’ priorities, as every injury issue becomes more significant. As with any Premier League season, the grind does not stop. The next 3 game weeks deliver some enticing fixtures that will induce heart-pumping moments for the fanatic and neutral alike.

Teams to watch through Game weeks 8 – 10

Man City (1) – Man Utd (H), Southampton (H), Liverpool (A)

Arsenal (3) – Tottenham (H), Liverpool (H), Leeds (A)

Brighton (7) – Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Brentford (A)

Everton (10) – Southampton (A), Man Utd (H), Tottenham (A)

Leicester (20) – Nottingham Forest (H), Bournemouth (A), Crystal Palace (H)

Attack Rating – Metric accounts for goals scored, big chances created and shots on goal per 30 minutes of possession

Defensive Rating – Metric accounts for goals conceded, big chanced allowed, and shots on goal per 30 minutes of opposition possession

Net Rating – Differential of attack and defensive rating

Pace – Metric accounts for “Big Chances Created” (defined by Opta) per 30 minutes of possession

1. Manchester City: Attack Rating 4.09 (3), Defensive Rating 2.68 (9), Net Rating (3), Possession 70.26 (1), Pace 3.09 (3)

After 7 games played, the league can take solace in the fact that Manchester City do not sit clearly adrift the chasing pack at the top of the table and have shown potential signs of weakness, dropping points away at both Newcastle and Aston Villa – teams most would expect City to see off with relatively little trouble.

Boasting the most goals scored so far led by the 2 headed juggernaut of Kevin de Bruyne (8 “Big Chances” created and 6 assists = league leader in both) and Erling Haaland (11 league goals = league leader and more goals than 13 teams), it seems inevitable that City will ultimately pull away and make this season a 1 horse stroll to the third EPL 3-peat.

On top of the relentless efficiency of their threat to the opposition goal (leading the league in “big chances” created and holding the 3rd highest big chance conversion rate – 52%), Man City seem to have near mastered the art of protecting the ball, currently averaging an oppressive ~70% possession per game. Playing against Man City means facing one of the toughest tests your defence will see all year whilst trying to generate something/anything with very little of the ball.

Their early fixture list looks slightly easier, with games against Tottenham and Arsenal postponed, but the chance these fixtures are rescheduled to an opportune time for Man City, given their domestic and European title aspirations, looks bleak.

Man City play against 2 "traditional top 6" opposition in the next 3 games, hosting their noisy neighbours after the international break and going to recent title rivals Liverpool after hosting Southampton and completing their 2 Champions League group fixtures against FC Copenhagen.

2. Tottenham: Attack Rating 4.55 (2), Defensive Rating 2.16 (6), Net Rating 2.39 (1), Possession 49.37% (12), Pace 2.44 (9)

Beating out Arsenal to the 2-spot based on a slightly more difficult set of opening fixtures and being 1 of the 2 undefeated teams in the league is Tottenham Hotspurs.

Questions continue to be asked about the credibility of a Tottenham title challenge, along with their north London rivals, but Spurs have so far been vindicated for their early optimism. Having done nothing spectacular going into the game against Leicester, Tottenham sat comfortably in 3rd place, undefeated, and not having been notably challenged, even taking into account a well (albeit controversially) secured point away at Stamford bridge. Harry Kane began the season in cruise mode, netting some crucial point scoring goals (winner vs Fulham, Wolves and last-minute goal vs Chelsea) and continuing to be a justified staple in the England International setup based on form and reliability.

Outside the mental identity of this Spurs teams (which can only be judged later), the sustainability of their style of play under Antonio Conte appeared a reasonable critique considering the struggles of last season’s joint Golden Boot winner, Son Heung-Min. Then the Leicester game happened.

Initially left out of the starting line-up after failing to score in Tottenham’s first 7 premier league games, Son was brought on in the 59th minute (with Tottenham 3 -2 up) and proceeded to score the 2nd quickest hat trick by a substitute in EPL history, including a season highlight strike off his left foot.

The validity of Tottenham as title contenders ends if Son and Kane are not firing. 9th in the league in big chances created but 2nd in conversion rate while holding the opposition to the fewest big chances per game means so far, everything is going to plan for Antonio Conte. The boost in confidence from Son could not have come at a better time as Tottenham prepare for a highly anticipated North London Derby at the Emirates after the international break.

The next 3 fixtures pose very different challenges, but challenges nonetheless, that could cement the contender credentials of this Tottenham side. Starting the post break with a key fixture in the premier league diary (last 5 away NLD results; 0W, 1D, 4L) against the side currently sat top of the table, then premier league fixtures against the 2 highest rated defences in the league with their 2 Champions League games against Eintracht Frankfurt to navigate mid-week.

3. Arsenal: Attack Rating 3.91 (4), Defensive Rating 2.30 (7), Net Rating 1.61 (2), Possession 58.17% (4), Pace 2.73 (6)

In third place, just below their North London rival, sitting top of the table – the gunners.

Losing out on the top spots following their one defeat to Manchester United in game week 6. The mentality and long-term form of this Arsenal squad will continue to be the looming question until they return to winning points/games away against their top 6 competition and they finally regain the EPL trophy. Having been gifted a relatively straightforward opening set of fixtures, Arsenal have passed the tests of beating the teams “they should beat” but failed the first major test of the season at Old Trafford.

Though dominating possession and scoring a controversially disallowed opening goal, Arsenal were guilty of playing directly into their opposition’s plans, giving up 4 big chances on the break to a Man United (number 2 rated team in pace) attack that was ruthless on the day, converting 75% of their big chances.

Unlike previous seasons, the Arsenal have so far beaten the “easy to break down” claims, as they are 4th in big chances allowed per game and have the 2nd best defensive rating of the “traditional top 6”.

The gunners can cement their credentials as title challengers and leapfrog up the rankings as they host their North London rivals in an action-packed game week 7, then host last season’s runner up in an equally daunting challenge in game week 8.

4. Manchester United: Attack Rating 2.41 (10), Defensive Rating 3.15 (12), Net Rating -0.75 (11), Possession 49.40% (11), Pace 3.24 (2)

After the dramatic summer window, apparent hostility in the dressing room and losing their opening 2 fixtures in shocking fashion, Man United have turned their season around completely and look a force to be reckoned with. They are riding a 4-game win streak which includes offensive clinics over Arsenal and Liverpool and only 2 goals conceded over the stretch.

They go into the international break, notably improved since dropping the Manchester United captain and England starter Harry Maguire to the bench. The ex-Leicester defender is becoming a figure of controversy at Old Trafford, as he continues to command his place in the national setup but has been ably replaced in the heart of the United defence by the formidable duo of Varane and Martinez. Much was made of the size of Martinez and how he would cope with the physicality of the EPL, but so far, he has hardly put a foot wrong. The new starting back line of United (with the ever-present David De Gea in goal) could theoretically be exposed by opposition with a lot of size and aggression, but teams with the personnel to truly challenge them will likely be few and far between. One such challenge awaits them in the upcoming game week where they visit the top ranked team and the physical challenge of the league in the premier Manchester Derby of the season.

5. Liverpool: Attack Rating 3.11 (6), Defensive Rating 3.43 (14), Net Rating -0.43 (10), Possession 68.68% (2), Pace 2.07 (11)

The slog of battling out near perfect seasons against Manchester City and still coming up short may be finally catching up to the red of Merseyside. Opening the season dropping points against newly promoted Fulham and Crystal Palace seemed to have slightly knocked the confidence from the 2020 league winners. Sadio Mane moving on to Bayern Munich, the invincibility of their key man at the back (VVD) and lingering injuries throughout the squad have compounded the early frustrations of this team that will continue to have the highest aspiration until mathematically impossible.

Unable to bounce back against bitter rivals Manchester United in game week 3, Liverpool let out the frustration of the entire city (at least the red side) on the struggling Bournemouth, which ultimately led to the first managerial casualty of the season – seeing Scott Parker relieved of his duties before September.

Too soon to be ruling out a team with the quality that Liverpool possess, but it cannot be understated that teams have developed a plan to frustrate Liverpool by sitting deeper and allowing them the ball (averaging nearly 69% possession) which, at least presently, seems to be working. Murmurs of this dominating Liverpool side being “found out” will be emboldened or silenced over the coming games as they face tests against the number 1 ranked defence followed by games against the 2 teams currently sat at the top of the Premier League table.

The key to a successful season for Liverpool looks heavily dependent on if Thiago Alcantra can remain healthy. Based on the early season sample, this could prove a costly if for the title hopes, and even top 4 hopes of Klopp’s men.

6. Chelsea: Attack Rating 2.09 (12), Defensive Rating 4.43 (18), Net Rating -2.34 (17), Possession 61.38% (3), Pace 1.68 (15)

7th in the table flatters the blues given the situation they find themselves in after 6 games of the 22/23 season. Their new man in charge has shown no intention of blunting the regime, sacking Thomas Tuchel ruthlessly following the side’s defeat to Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League. This means Chelsea will effectively be looking to start from fresh with their new manager, poached from surprise performers Brighton, after the international break.

Given the relatively poor start from Chelsea, a fresh start could be exactly what their season needs to construct a sustained challenge for the top spots of the league and to rekindle any European hopes for the remainder of the season.

One of the first challenges in front of Graham Potter will be to establish some semblance of an identity to this Chelsea team who have looked short on ideas going forward and have been unable to reliably protect their goal. Moments of brilliance from the talent within the Chelsea squad, typified by Raheem Sterling, have kept the ship afloat for the time being. The sacking of Thomas Tuchel was met with mixed emotions from the Chelsea fan base, but the integration of Graeme Potter and some favourable upcoming fixtures could give the blue side of London a much-needed boost in morale to get things shaking at the peak of the table.

7. Brentford: Attack Rating 5.02 (1), Defensive Rating 3.67 (15), Net Rating 1.35 (4), Possession 44.31% (13), Pace 4.05 (1)

One of the surprise packages of the season so far has been the mighty Bees.

Beginning their Premier League adventures with a win against Arsenal on the opening day of the season last year, it might have been illogical to expect any less from Thomas Frank and his men. Manchester United were the first to fall victim to the pace of the Brentford attack, conceding 4 unanswered, then Leeds felt a similar sting in game week 6, where Brentford put away 5 goals, highlighted by an Ivan Toney hat-trick.

The theme for the Bees so far this season has been to just score goals. They will concede. But they will most likely score. Only held goalless by a very impressive defensive display by top of the league Arsenal, Brentford lead the league in attack rating and pace. 13th in the league in possession, the Brentford team accept they will not have the majority of the ball, but when they do get it, they will be lethal. 2nd only to Manchester City in big chances created (and big chanced created per game) Brentford will put pressure on every defence they face as they consistently create big chances, and if given a sniff, Ivan Toney will convert them.

Huge mid-table clashes await the Bees in the next few games, with game week 10 show casing the number 1 rated attack vs the number rated defence when Brentford host one of the other surprise packages of the season, Brighton.

8. Brighton: Attack Rating 2.73 (8), Defensive Rating 1.44 (1), Net Rating 1.29 (4), Possession 49.87% (10), Pace 3.03 (4)

Similar to Brentford, the Seagulls have begun the campaign unexpectedly well, positioned nicely in the 4th spot of the table. Unlike the Bees, Brighton have dominated on the defensive end of the field, conceding the fewest goals so far this season and enjoying the number 1 rated defence.

The Seagulls may have become victims of their own success with their manager being poached in early September to replace Thomas Tuchel by the labouring Chelsea. They will look to continue their solid form after the international break with Roberto De Zerbi at the helm.

The Italian’s record is nothing to sniffed at, leading Shaktar Donetsk to the top of the UPL in a season heavily impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and winning the Ukrainian Super cup during his tenure.

The impressive start has also brought extra attention to the quality of the Brighton squad. The market value of Pascal Groß and Leandro Trossard will have soared, and if their form continues, they will both be in good stead for selection for their respective national teams come the winter world cup.

Game week 8 – 10 brings one of the Seagull’s most exciting fixture stretches and defensive tests as they visit Anfield, and host 1 of the league’s power houses (Tottenham) and the current number 1 rated attack, Brentford.

9. Newcastle: Attack Rating 2.33 (11), Defensive Rating 2.08 (5), Net Rating 0.25 (7), Possession 50.70% (8), Pace 2.58 (7)

In 9th, surely disappointed with their point collection so far, Newcastle. The newest “new money” team in the league have opened the season with some promising performances against Liverpool and away at Man City. As with most of their games this season, the performances have not been rewarded with enough points. Aside from the win in the season opener against freshly promoted Nottingham Forest, the Magpies could be justified in thinking they should have picked up more from every other game played – Including the gripping point gained at St James’ Park to Manchester City in game week 3.

The depth and quality of the northernmost team in the league, with the steady mind of Eddie Howe, makes them a predictable contender to push up the rankings and the league table as the season progresses. Their squad boasts a healthy mix of youth, experience, and excitement to make them a wise choice for the neutral and bodes well for the future of the Tyneside club.

The next 3 games for the Magpies are against 3 of the season’s current surprise fliers but are games the club will look to collect close to maximum points. Without the added strain of European football, 9 points from the next 9 looks a plausible haul for the magpies and help define realistic goals for the season.

10. Fulham: Attack Rating 3.36 (5), Defensive Rating 2.93 (11), Net Rating 0.43 (6), Possession 41.66% (18), Pace 2.41 (10)

Rounded out the top 10 in this instalment of the EPL rankings is the newly promoted side, Fulham.

Fulham have put on a performance to be respected in every outing so far, only dropping points against teams “they should” drop points against (and Wolves). Aleksandar Mitrović has brought his presence and form with him from a spectacular championship winning season in 2021-22 (43 goals in 44 appearances), scoring 6 of Fulham’s 12 league goals.

The Lily Whites have only been outclassed by Tottenham and Arsenal at this point and have managed to stay within striking distance on both occasions. Averaging the third lowest possession stats in the league, Marco Silva has his team setup to punish teams that dare to over-extend as swiftly as possible. However, on the other side of the ball, Fulham allow the 3rd most big chances per game which, over the course of the season, could turn into a recipe for disaster.

In the short term, the plan looks like it will sustain, as they host Newcastle, then play against 2 of the bottom 6 ranked attacks in West Ham and Bournemouth. The second half of October also offers preferable fixtures for the Lily Whites to confront.

The rest…

11. Everton: Attack Rating 1.35 (18), Defensive Rating 1.62 (2), Net Rating -0.27 (9), Possession 41.99% (17), Pace 1.98 (14)

12. Crystal Palace: Attack Rating 2.52 (9), Defensive Rating 2.38 (8), Net Rating 0.14 (8), Possession 42.90% (15), Pace 2.85 (5)

13. Leeds: Attack Rating 2.87 (7), Defensive Rating 4.73 (19), Net Rating -1.87 (16), Possession 55.30% (5), Pace 2.53 (8)

14. Wolves: Attack Rating 0.83 (20), Defensive Rating 1.80 (3), Net Rating -0.97 (13), Possession 51.84% (7), Pace 1.34 (17)

15. West Ham: Attack Rating 0.93 (19), Defensive Rating 1.99 (4), Net Rating -1.06 (14), Possession 41.40% (19), Pace 1.15 (18)

16. Aston Villa: Attack Rating 1.45 (16), Defensive Rating 3.24 (13), Net Rating -1.80 (15), Possession 50.23% (9), Pace 0.85 (19)

17. Southampton: Attack Rating 2.04 (13), Defensive Rating 2.81 (10), Net Rating -0.77 (12), Possession 42.87% (16), Pace 1.99 (13)

18. Bournemouth: Attack Rating 1.52 (15), Defensive Rating 4.12 (19), Net Rating -2.60 (18), Possession 35.51% (20), Pace 0.67 (20)

19. Nottingham Forest: Attack Rating 1.38 (17), Defensive Rating 4.29 (17), Net Rating -2.92 (19), Possession 43.91% (14), Pace 2.00 (12)

20. Leicester: Attack Rating 2.00 (14), Defensive Rating 6.58 (20), Net Rating -4.58 (20), Possession 54.17% (6), Pace 1.45 (16)